Boots on the Ground Because Idk Why Not 🤷‍♂️

Housekeeping: No Triad tomorrow but don't despair—Catherine Rampell and I will be live at 12:30pm ET on Substack and YouTube talking about the economy. Watch your inbox. And I’ll have the Secret for you. And I’m sitting in for Sarah on Illegal News. That JVL is so hot right now.

1. Maskirovka

The American regime is sending conflicting signals. The president says negotiations with Iran are going well. He orders ground troops to the theater. The administration leaks that Trump wants the war wrapped up in a week or two. The administration leaks that it is preparing a massive “final blow” which will include a ground invasion.

There is value in hiding your plans from the enemy.

Unless you don’t have plans and are making it up as you go.

So far evidence suggests we’re operating on that second rubric.

Early in the war I thought it was highly unlikely Trump would dispatch ground troops. Over time my view has changed. The available evidence suggests:

• Trump does not have a strategic objective.

• Without an objective, he does not know how to conclude the war.

You see this in virtually every report coming from the administration. The president talks about “ending” the war without having any concept of what that looks like. Does it mean regime change? Does it mean new Iranian leadership that the president personally approves? Does it mean complete and total obliteration of the Iranian nuclear program? Does it mean de-militarization of Iran? Does it simply mean returning the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo?

All of which is why it’s clear that ground troops really are on the table. If you’re in a war, you don’t have an objective, and you need the enemy to agree to a cessation of hostilities, then everything is on the table. The operation has escaped confinement.

Let’s puzzle this out...