Washington, DC

1. DHS deal passes
2. Trump’s Iran misdirection
3. War resources tight
4. Trump attends Saudi confab
5. Live Nation controversy
6. NH Senate primary drama

PDB: Trump signature to be added to dollar 

Vance hosts first fraud task force meeting … Rubio attends G7 meeting in France … UMichigan reports on consumer sentiment

Deal to fund most of DHS heads to House

The Senate approved a deal early Friday to reopen almost all of the Department of Homeland Security, exempting funding for immigration enforcement under ICE and Customs and Border Protection. It’s a face-saving move for two parties who’d grown tired of airport chaos and who wanted to leave Washington after a fruitless five weeks of haggling. Under this deal, which still needs to pass the House and be signed by President Donald Trump, Democrats don’t get the immigration enforcement changes they demanded and Republicans don’t get additional immigration enforcement funding. Talks on a broader deal continued late into Thursday but were sidelined after Trump sidestepped Congress to pay TSA workers. Trump plans to pay those workers with funds from last year’s tax cuts bill, which can also fund his immigration enforcement operations, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report.

Trump’s Iran moves point to ground troops

Trump is known for The Art of the Deal, but Iran has showcased another talent: the art of misdirection, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott writes. As he holds off on threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure while moving military resources into the Middle East, some experts read ceasefire talk as a potential head fake — with the upside of calming markets. “The [administration] has played this same move three times in just one year,” said Jonathan Hackett, a former Marine Corps interrogator. As more troops are deployed, seizing Iran’s oil export hub Kharg Island “just became more than a definite maybe,” said a person familiar. Trump’s aides see his up-and-down approach as a deliberate tactic: “He finds great joy in keeping his adversaries on their toes, including the fake news media,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Trump is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional ground troops within striking distance of Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Israel, US face military constraints

The US and Israel are running short on resources to carry out the war in Iran. Israel’s opposition leader warned that the country’s military — which is also carrying out operations in Lebanon — was “stretched to the limit and beyond,” while one Israeli general reportedly said the force was “on the verge of collapse.” Semafor, meanwhile, reported this month that Israeli forces told the US that they were running critically low on missile interceptors. The US is similarly squeezed: Arsenals are strained by previous conflicts and replenishment rates remain low, an analyst wrote. The situation is comparable to 1950, when an underfunded Army deployed a task force to Korea with “insufficient ammunition, outdated equipment, and units unable to sustain combat operations.”

Iran war hangs over Saudi investment event

Trump will speak at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative in Miami this evening, as the Iran war takes a toll on the investment climate in the Gulf. The event will be attended by Saudi Arabia’s finance minister, sovereign wealth fund governor, and other top officials, as well as Trump’s lead negotiators on Iran and other conflicts — special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Their presence “is a recognition of the importance of Saudi Arabia for the security and prosperity of the US,” one Saudi Arabia expert told Bloomberg. For Riyadh, the situation at home is dire, but that makes it even more important to meet, Richard Attias, CEO of the FII Institute, told Semafor’s Matthew Martin and Mohammed Sergie. “We are a platform that can never stop,” he said.

Antitrust officials defend Live Nation deal

Top antitrust officials told Semafor that they wholeheartedly stand behind the controversial Live Nation merger settlement and denied any improper lobbying, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman and Eleanor Mueller report. FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson rejected the idea that MAGA-connected lobbyists inappropriately influenced merger reviews. “My job is to hear out the arguments, and then make up my own damn mind, and do it consistently with the law,” he told Semafor at an event in Washington. Under the settlement’s terms, Live Nation will divest certain US venues and pay states which accept the settlement roughly $200 million. Former Justice Department officials have alleged backdoor lobbying stymied the antitrust division’s efforts, under Gail Slater, to push a breakup at trial. “I told my staff that you were able to get more relief than anyone in history ever has against Live Nation,” said Omeed Assefi, DOJ’s acting antitrust chief.

Why Scott Brown won’t bow out in NH

Republicans hoped former Sen. Scott Brown would take the hint and drop his New Hampshire Senate bid after virtually the entire national GOP endorsed his opponent, former Sen. John E. Sununu. But Brown told Semafor’s Burgess Everett that’s not happening. “Certainly they want me to drop out, because that’s what they do. They’ll put pressure on me,” Brown said in an interview. “I’m not going anywhere.” Brown is frustrating national Republicans by staying in, with the Senate Leadership Fund and National Republican Senatorial Committee sending scathing statements knocking his candidacy and backing Sununu’s chances. And it’s not lost on anyone how strange it is to have two former senators who haven’t been in Congress for more than a decade competing for a GOP nomination: “Two good guys. It is kind of weird,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

Debatable: Regulating prediction markets

As prediction markets grow in popularity and gain influence in Washington, lawmakers in both parties are talking more seriously about how to regulate them. Democrats, and a few Republicans, have introduced various bills that would ban sports betting on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket; prevent federal lawmakers and the president from placing bets on them; and prohibit bets on events like deaths and war. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has taken the side of prediction markets in legal battles with states. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig has intervened in cases in which state and local regulators have accused prediction markets of violating state gambling laws. “I’ve introduced legislation to take it out of his authority altogether,” said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev. But Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said Congress shouldn’t move to regulate the platforms because “government does enough things bad.”

Former Sony Entertainment CEO Michael Lynton made a decision that led to one of the most consequential hacks in history: approving The Interview, the Seth Rogen-James Franco comedy that provoked a cyberattack from North Korea. Now chairman of Snap Inc., Lynton joins this week’s Mixed Signals to revisit that moment, why he broke his own greenlight process, and how he managed the fallout as private emails were leaked and careers were upended. Plus, he talks about his new book with Josh Steiner, and why he was frustrated by the US federal government’s inaction on its own TikTok ban.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “Who won the Senate standoff? No one, in truth. Nothing really changed. Both sides wanted to have this fight, so it happened. It was another example of how little moderation is left in the Trump era, where the first instinct is to go to war.”

Playbook: At CPAC in Texas, MAGA supporters believe they have achieved their goal of keeping President Trump from endorsing Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in the state’s Senate primary runoff, and that he will instead back Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. “This could be the victory that empowers MAGA through the midterms,” Steve Bannon said.

Axios: Vice President JD Vance is preparing to be the lead US negotiator in potential peace talks with Iran and has already held calls with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met with Gulf allies, and taken part in indirect talks with Iranians.

White House

• President Trump is adding his signature to the US dollar. — Vanity Fair
• David Sacks is leaving his role as Trump’s AI and crypto czar, but will remain co-chair of a White House tech advisory council.
• Trump has his eye on another White House renovation. — NYT

Congress

• Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., penned a scathing letter to Fed nominee Kevin Warsh in which she dismissed him as a “rubber stamp” for President Trump. — CNBC
• House Speaker Mike Johnson publicly “lost his cool” at Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., over her opposition to FISA renewal. — Axios
• Six Democrats are pressing the Justice Department on whether Americans who use VPN services are subject to NSA surveillance. — Wired

Outside the Beltway

• After Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s second court appearance in New York, Maduro’s son said he “trust[s] in the legal system of the United States” but decried his father’s “kidnapping.”
• Maduro is being held in an extra-restrictive “jail inside of a jail” in Brooklyn. — CBS

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