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Let’s start with something positive: You. Why you? Because you are awesome, you’re wonderful, your opinions are sound, your decisions are spot-on, you’re never on the wrong side of an argument, and you’re just generally a solid citizen. Don’t take my word for it. Just talk to your favorite AI for a while, and it will tell you the same thing. You may have already noticed the obsequious fawning that surfaces when you communicate with AI, but there’s a chance you’ve missed it—since, you know, it’s simply stating an obvious core truth that lives at the intersection of your rightness and righteousness. These Stuart Smalley-esquedaily affirmations are baked right into the products. I know, I know. AI is known for its hallucinations, but it’s also known for being able to crunch large amounts of data and come up with a clear summary of the facts, the results of which are as follows: You deserve good things, you are entitled to your share of happiness, you are fun to be with. Hell, even when you’re in the wrong, you’re actually in the right.
“Stanford researchers tested 11 leading AI models and found they all exhibit sycophancy — a fancy word for telling people what they want to hear. On average, these chatbots agreed with users 49% more often than real humans did. Even when users described lying, manipulating partners, or breaking the law, the AI endorsed their behavior 47% of the time.” Stanford just proved your AI chatbot is flattering you into bad decisions. “Here’s the part that should worry everyone. Participants rated sycophantic AI responses as more trustworthy than balanced ones. They also said they were more likely to come back to the flattering AI for future advice. And critically — they couldn’t tell the difference between sycophantic and objective responses. Both felt equally ‘neutral’ to them.”
+ “Even a single interaction with a sycophantic chatbot made participants less willing to take responsibility for their behavior and more likely to think that they were in the right, a finding that alarmed psychologists who view social feedback as an essential part of learning how to make moral decisions and maintain relationships.” NYT (Gift Article): Seeking a Sounding Board? Beware the Eager-to-Please Chatbot.
+ Here’s the full report from Science: Sycophantic AI decreases prosocial intentions and promotes dependence. “Although affirmation may feel supportive, sycophancy can undermine users’ capacity for self-correction and responsible decision-making. Yet because it is preferred by users and drives engagement, there has been little incentive for sycophancy to diminish.” (Don’t worry. If big tech eventually does tone down the lickspittling, bootlicking, groveling, kowtowing adulation and unctuously servile toadyism, you can always replace it by having yourself a cabinet meeting.)
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Strait Up Now Tell Me
“For the better part of the past year, Wall Street analysts and tech-industry observers have fretted publicly about an AI bubble. The fear is that too much money is coming in too fast and that generative-AI companies still have not offered anything close to a viable business model. If growth were to stall or the technology were to be seen as failing to deliver on its promises, the bubble might burst, triggering a chain reaction across the financial system. Everyone—big banks, private-equity firms, people who have no idea what’s mixed into their 401(k)—would be hit by the AI crash. Until recently, that kind of crash felt hypothetical; today, it feels plausible and, to some, almost inevitable.” The Atlantic (Gift Article) on how the Iran war might trigger some big economic problems (beyond the ones you’re already thinking about): Welcome to a Multidimensional Economic Disaster.
+ As per usual, while some people are worried about tech advancement and portfolio returns, others are worried about less lofty pursuits; like eating. NYT (Gift Article): Global Food Supply Faces a Dangerous Bottleneck as Iran War Persists. “Fertilizer prices are climbing as a result of disruptions in the Middle East, putting global food supplies at risk.”
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Breaking Ground
“Donald Trump announced this week that the United States and Iran had made significant progress in negotiations, and he was allowing five days to reach a deal. Tehran denied that it was talking with Washington at all. This is not, in any meaningful sense, a negotiation: It is a countdown. The timing is not coincidental. Thousands of Marines and much of the 1st Brigade of the 82nd Airborne are en route to the Middle East. Trump may intend the talks to act as cover for an escalation decision already made. Even if he doesn’t, the structural reality is the same: When the deadline expires, he will be close to having significant ground-combat capability in the region and a collapsing diplomatic process to justify using it.” Thomas Wright in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Countdown to a Ground War.
+ Or, maybe not? “[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran ... Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.” Inside the White House divide on Iran.
+ “Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the United States did not need to deploy ground troops to succeed in the war in Iran, which he said would end within weeks rather than months, even as Iran moved to assert its control over the critical Strait of Hormuz.” But does anyone believe Rubio is the decider on any of this stuff? Just read this craziness. “Mr. Rubio told reporters in Paris that the United States had not received a formal response from Iran to President Trump’s 15-point plan for ending the war. Mr. Trump has said that peace talks are underway and going well, but Iranian officials have said that contacts between the two countries have been minimal and mostly indirect, not yet amounting to real negotiations.” Here’s the latest from the NYT.
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Weekend Whats
What to Watch: “A century before the events of Game of Thrones, two unlikely heroes wander Westeros in the new series adapted from George R. R. Martin’s novella.” A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms on HBO is an awesome watch, and a great addition to the Game of Thrones world.
+ What to Hear: Last night, I took my guitar-playing teen to see the great Record Company in concert. They’re out celebrating the tenth anniversary of their Give It Back to You Album. But they’re best seen live. About thirty seconds into last night’s show, my son looked over and nodded in approval. For his old dad, that’s about as rock n’ roll as it gets.
+ What to Movie: “Marcelo (Wagner Moura) is a researcher on the run from mercenary killers after becoming the target of a dictator’s political tumult in 1977 Brazil.” The Secret Agent takes place in the 70s and unfurls at a 70s movie pace, so it’s perfect for a daytime watch on Hulu. Parts of it are also, sadly, a little too familiar.
+ What to Read: “It has also occluded something deeper: the human decisions that led to the killing of between 175 and 180 people, most of them girls between the ages of seven and 12. Someone decided to compress the kill chain. Someone decided that deliberation was latency. Someone decided to build a system that produces 1,000 targeting decisions an hour and call them high-quality. Someone decided to start this war. Several hundred people are sitting on Capitol Hill, refusing to stop it. Calling it an ‘AI problem’ gives those decisions, and those people, a place to hide.” AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is far more worrying. (The fact that we’ve moved on from this story and only worry about gas prices is also pretty worrying...)
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Extra, Extra
Fly By Night Outfits: The Senate passed a bill to get the TSA funding restarted. The House needs to pass something, and that could be tricky. In the meantime, the lines are getting longer. Here’s the latest from AP.
+ Black Diamond Level Warming: “Vital Arctic sea ice shrank to tie its lowest measured level for the winter, the season when ice grows.” Closer to home, ski resorts try ‘snow farming‘ as temperatures rise. “The practice involves making snow when conditions are ideal — in cold, dry weather— and piling it two to three stories high, then covering the mound with a large, insulated mat t