So far, the main consequence of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been the empowerment of Iran’s hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, writes Afshon Ostovar in a new essay from the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs. If the group solidifies its control in the wake of war, “Tehran will remain reflexively antagonistic toward Israel, the United States, and pro-democracy elements inside the country.”
“But this future is not foretold,” Ostovar writes. The IRGC’s relative power within Iran has increased since U.S. and Israeli attacks began, but its “absolute power has been diminished,” providing an opportunity for more reform-minded figures. “After decades of dominance by ultraconservatives, Iran’s tumult means these moderates finally have a shot at enacting change.”
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