Washington, DC

1. Roots of post-Kirk paranoia
2. $4 per gallon
3. Taiwan drone push
4. Officials promote ‘Trump Accounts’
5. Markets on borrowed time

Nasdaq ▲ 3.8% after reports raised investor hopes of a near-term end to the war.

How Texas doctor started Kirk conspiracy fever

In the hours after conservative leader Charlie Kirk’s September assassination, his executive producer, Andrew Kolvet, took a call in the hospital from a Texas plastic surgeon and occasional Kirk show guest, Keith Rose — who shared a warning that helped launch a flurry of conspiracy theories on the American right, Semafor’s Ben Smith and Shelby Talcott report. Rose told Kolvet that he’d picked up information that two other prominent conservatives, Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, might have been the original intended targets. Kolvet passed on the warnings. What followed was a fever of paranoia and finger-pointing, with Rose — who declined to comment on the conversation — as patient zero. Kolvet confirmed that Rose had passed on further material bolstering his allegations to the Trump administration; a source in the administration said “every actionable lead was run down and could not be proven.”

Gas crosses $4 per gallon as Trump dismisses crisis in strait

President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is not America’s problem, as average US gas prices crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. In a Truth Social post, Trump criticized US allies and laid responsibility for reopening the key trade route at their feet. “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” he said. Trump has told aides that he’d consider ending the conflict in Iran without resolving the trade crisis, The Wall Street Journal reported. Such a scenario could leave Iran with significant regional clout that would be untenable to neighboring Gulf leaders, who are pushing Trump to achieve a decisive victory. And it would delay solving a complex problem as the oil shock ripples westward, including to the US, which has fared better than most of the world so far.

Bill aims to strengthen US-Taiwan ties

A bipartisan group of lawmakers wants the Trump administration to help bolster Taiwan’s domestic drone industry as the island faces increasing threats from China, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant scoops. A new bill from Sens. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., Ted Cruz, R-Texas, John Curtis, R-Utah, and Andy Kim, D-N.J., would set up a working group involving the State Department and Pentagon to find ways for Washington and Taipei to co-produce drones. It’s unclear whether the legislation will go anywhere in the Senate, though there is broad bipartisan support for Taiwan in the chamber. The idea behind the bill is to develop a supply chain independent from China that Taiwan and other US allies can rely on. Beijing has increasingly used drones to pressure Taipei, including reportedly deploying drones made from fighter jets to bases near the Taiwan Strait.

Trump officials promote new savings programs

White House and Treasury Department officials are touting a proposed retirement savings plan alongside so-called Trump Accounts ahead of Financial Literacy Month. “I believe that in the end, when we look back at the policy legacy of this administration, these will be two of the most transformative policies,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said at a luncheon hosted by the SPARK Institute Tuesday, less than a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a similar pitch in New York. “It’s our belief that between these two things … we’re going to be creating … a generation of Americans who have skin in the game.” The Treasury Department’s Luke Pettit said later that officials are eyeing “new ways to incorporate Trump Accounts into financial literacy programs” ahead of their launch this summer, which he called “an all-hands-on-deck endeavor.”

— Eleanor Mueller

View: The crisis will arrive slowly, then all at once

World leaders are doomscrolling. Why aren’t investors? Markets have flinched but haven’t freaked out: Oil is well short of where many analysts think it should be, and the Nasdaq’s correction territory is driven by AI fears, not global shocks. One answer: We’re on borrowed time, writes Semafor’s Liz Hoffman. The buffer from oil already at sea and releases from national reserves “is now being exhausted in real time,” write experts at Rystad Energy. The second- and third-order effects haven’t hit: crops stunted by fertilizer shortages, factory blackouts, MRI rationing from helium shortages, grocery prices hit by trucking costs. They will arrive like the pandemic’s economic effects, slowly and then all at once.

This April, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the largest convening of top global CEOs and government officials in the United States — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the full lineup of speakers, including Global Advisory Board members, Fortune 500 CEOs, and top elected officials from the US and across the G20.

Iran War

• B-52 bombers are flying over Iran, a sign that Tehran’s air defenses have been drastically reduced — but the regime can still hit regional targets with missiles, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said during a Pentagon briefing.

Economy

• The hiring rate in February hit the lowest point since April 2020, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Energy

• A government panel cited the Iran war in exempting oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from the Endangered Species Act. — WaPo

Courts

• The Supreme Court ruled against a Colorado law that bans anti-LGBTQ “conversion therapy” for kids, siding 8-1 with a Christian therapist who claimed the law violates her First Amendment rights and sending the case back to a lower court.
• The Trump administration is suing a Coca-Cola distributor for holding a women-only professional event, arguing it discriminated against male employees.
• A judge ordered the Trump administration to halt construction of the $400 million White House ballroom until Congress approves the plan.

Health

• The FDA may soon allow compounding pharmacies to resume producing injectable peptides that were banned in 2023 for safety reasons. — NYT

World

• Britain’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla announced they will visit the US in April.

Politics

• Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s family was “blindsided” by a recent report that her husband conducted online chats with fetish models. — NY Post
• Vice President JD Vance will publish a memoir about his conversion to Catholicism on June 16.

Media

• American journalist Shelly Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad. — Fox

National Security

• The Pentagon is considering deploying a defensive laser system after drones were spotted flying over the base where Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio live. — NYT
• The FBI said a man who rammed a synagogue in Michigan earlier this month was inspired by Hezbollah.

— House Speaker Mike Johnson on Fox & Friends this morning.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

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