What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets

“Off ramp” seems to be the word of the week surrounding the Iran war - and the steep Wall Street rally on the final day of the first quarter spoke to that relief on Tuesday.

Will April skies clear? The S&P 500’s jump of almost 3% was the biggest one-day gain since last May, and the other assets beaten down by the war - bonds, credit and gold - all followed suit.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how cash beat every classic safe haven in March. If you want to know why, just ask Warren Buffett.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where I discuss the relief rally and break down an upside surprise in U.S. consumer confidence.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the end of the Iran war could be near, with Washington signaling a potential winding down of the conflict even without a deal.
  • Nike forecast a surprise drop in fourth-quarter sales on Tuesday, sending its shares down more than 9% in extended trading, as persistent ‌weakness in China and slow progress in clearing older inventory hamper turnaround efforts.
  • Many Asian economies saw factory activity slow in March, a ‌sign surging fuel costs from the Iran war were taking a toll on the region.
  • U.S. natural gas supplies are coming from an ever-narrower slice of America’s shale patch even as demand rises, which could trigger bouts of supply stress and price volatility, writes ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire.
  • Hundreds of billions of dollars are riding on the assumption that AI will be reliable enough for high-stakes work. New research suggests it may never be, argues Panmure Liberum’s Joachim Klement.
 

Finding the 'off ramp'

The ostensible triggers for the rally were signals from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the U.S. could be set to wind down the war. This followed reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was willing to discuss a ceasefire in exchange for guarantees that attacks would not be repeated.

Brent crude traded around $103 per barrel on Wednesday morning, while WTI hovered around $100 after earlier dipping below that level.

As things stand, though, missile and drone exchanges in the Gulf continue. The extent of Tuesday’s market moves may also have had something to do with month-end and quarter-end considerations, as well as the holiday-shortened week.

But Asia’s markets followed suit on Wednesday, with sharp gains in Japan and South Korea. European markets are also up, and Wall Street futures look to have retained their gains ahead of today’s bell.

Meantime, gold climbed to a nearly two-week high before trimming some of its gains. The dollar edged down against a basket of major currencies, while the yen held firm under the 160-per-dollar level.

All this comes as President Trump prepares to address the nation on Wednesday evening to give an "important update on Iran", according to the White House.

In the background, investors digested two pieces of U.S. economic information - a surprising rise in U.S. consumer confidence readings for March, and weaker soundings from the February job openings report.

In Asia, factory activity slowed in March amid rising fuel costs, but South Korea bucked the trend as activity rose at the strongest pace in more than four years on semiconductor demand. AI-driven appetite for semiconductors also boosted South Korea’s export growth to a four-decade high.

Stateside, the March private sector payroll update from ADP will be released later today, along with February retail sales. And, of course, the new quarter will focus attention on the Q1 corporate earnings season, with full-year growth estimates seemingly unchanged so far by the energy shock of the past month.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

Haven or dry powder, cash did fine in March, just ask Buffett

If Warren Buffett is happy for Berkshire Hathaway to load up on more cash, who needs to search for another safe haven?

Even though Berkshire has reported ending 2025 with a monster $373 billion cash stash, the cash pile appears to have been largely sustained and the conglomerate's legendary chairman claims they moved another chunk of money there this week.

"We bought $17 billion this week ... of T-bills," Buffett told CNBC on Tuesday, adding that beyond "one tiny purchase" they have not ‌seen an awful lot else to buy and the cash position remained "somewhere north of $350 billion."

As to whether the stock market shakeout in March had cheapened things enough to make it more interesting, he dismissed the correction with characteristic bluntness: "This is nothing."

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Read the full column