Kalshi and Polymarket have intensified a public dispute as competition heats up in the fast-growing prediction market sector and regulatory scrutiny increases in Washington. The clash centers on differences in oversight and practices, including offshore operations and contracts tied to geopolitical events, as trading volumes surge and lawmakers examine risks such as insider trading.

The Bank of England is facing industry resistance to proposed reforms in the gilt repo market, particularly around mandatory clearing and minimum haircuts. Market participants warn the changes could raise funding costs and reduce liquidity, despite supporting the broader goal of improving resilience. The BoE is expected to refine its approach, with formal policy proposals due in 2027.

Online betting platforms such as Polymarket are increasingly influencing global oil markets, with traders using data feeds to inform multimillion-dollar trades, especially in Brent crude futures. This trend has raised concerns about the potential for insider betting and market manipulation. Intercontinental Exchange has introduced a tool to integrate Polymarket data, highlighting the growing impact of prediction markets on oil pricing.

Investors seeking protection against corporate defaults amid concerns about the war in Iran and the economic impact of artificial intelligence have driven trading volumes in credit derivatives to a record $4.5 trillion in the first quarter, according to the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. Although the cost of default protection remains below previous highs, market volatility persists as investors hedge against potential losses.

The ongoing conflict in Iran and the spike in crude oil prices to $120 per barrel have severely disrupted the US rates market. March saw sharp moves in US Treasury markets, with consensus trades such as steepeners and swap spreads experiencing significant losses. These developments have led investors to pull back from rates strategies, highlighting the vulnerability of the market to geopolitical shocks.

Energy traders faced significant challenges during the early weeks of the Iran war, contending with tankers ablaze, missile attacks on oil terminals, and vessels immobilized in the Gulf. Many were caught off-guard, holding short positions in markets that rapidly turned volatile. Vitol and Trafigura have had ships stuck in the gulf, while Mercuria and Trafigura both experienced losses in the first days of the war. While these have since been reversed the chaos at the start of the war left everyone "unsure of their position", one trading executive said.

LME Clear saw stress losses and liquidity risk reach record levels in Q4 of 2025, driven by a surge in metal prices and trading volumes. The peak stress loss from the default of a single clearing member hit $1.7 billion, double the previous quarter's figure and surpassing the previous record of $1.1 billion set in Q4 of 2021.

B3 has announced plans to enter the prediction market with contracts tied to assets and economic indicators, including possibly elections. The stock exchange will launch six contracts on April 27 linked to the Ibovespa equity index, the real and bitcoin.

The European Energy Exchange is set to launch the EEX530, a new gas market index aimed at enhancing pricing transparency and liquidity in gas spot markets. The index will serve as a benchmark for a new trade-at-index functionality, allowing participants to execute trades directly against it. This initiative reflects EEX's commitment to aligning gas market practices with those of other commodities and responding to increasing volatility and trading activity in the energy sector.

The Reserve Bank of India has barred banks from offering non-deliverable forward contracts and restricted derivative rebooking to curb speculation against the rupee, which has hit record lows amid geopolitical pressure. The measures aim to limit arbitrage, enforce hedging-only use of derivatives and strengthen oversight of currency markets.

Congress has seen a surge of bipartisan legislative activity aimed at regulation prediction markets, with several new bills introduced over the past few weeks. Similar proposals appeared in the Senate as lawmakers ramp up their scrutiny of prediction markets, with concerns over insider trading being raised after well-timed trades ahead of presidential announcements. Key congressional committees are set to review the introduced bills, with bipartisan hearings promised.

The Australian Securities Exchange faces criticism from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Reserve Bank of Australia after a probe revealed shortcomings in risk management and compliance that could affect financial markets. ASX has reaffirmed its guidance and is taking steps to address the issues.