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Hey fam: This edition is unlocked as a public service because when you see all of Trump’s shifting Iran demands / timelines laid out in one place the effect is . . .
Sickening? Humiliating? Hilarious?
But it’s not about dunking on him. When you see how erratic and foolish Trump is, you understand why we’re losing this war. And as I try to explain in the second item, however much we’ve lost already, we can still do worse. At this point our options are (1) lose the Iran fight, but hold on to the petrodollar and our relative position in the global order, or (2) experience our own version of the Suez crisis in which the entire global balance of power moves eastward by several thousand miles.
If you find value in laying out all of this material and then using it to think deeply about what it means for the future . . . well, this is what we try to do here at The Bulwark every day.
Come join us. This is a community where we try to make each other smarter and help each other see around corners.
Programming note: The president has just started a press conference. We’re watching and we plan to do a livestream if he says something noteworthy. Check the homepage.
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1. The Timeline
Last week President Trump said that he didn’t care whether or not the Strait of Hormuz was reopened because it wasn’t America’s problem.
On Sunday he demanded the strait be reopened in two days or he would begin a campaign of war crimes against Iran.
Which is it?
That’s a trick question, obviously. The answer is the former; or maybe the later. Or both. Or neither.
I don’t know about you, but until recently I had forgotten that President Trump originally demanded the Iranian regime accede to “unconditional surrender.”
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That’s so far in the rearview that literally no one ever brings it up anymore.
Why haven’t reporters asked Trump why he’s negotiating about opening the Strait of Hormuz when he originally said that nothing short of “unconditional surrender” would be accepted? When you start radically revamping your win conditions, doesn’t that mean that you’re losing?
But of course it’s not that simple. This isn’t really about “winning” and “losing.” Because when you put all of Trump’s shifting demands, conditions, and timelines together in one place and just read them chronologically, you get a picture of either a degenerate bullshitter, or a man who’s lost his mind.
Here are all of the war demands made (so far) by the president of these United States.
February 28: “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. . . .
“[T]o the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
March 2: “I don’t want to see it go on too long. I always thought it would be four weeks. And we’re a little ahead of schedule.”
March 4: “One of the things I’m going to be asking for is the ability to work with them on choosing a new leader. . . . I’m not going through this to end up with another Khamenei. I want to be involved in the selection.”
March 5: “We want to go in and clean out everything. . . . We don’t want someone who would rebuild over a ten-year period.”
March 5: “They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment [of the next Iranian leader].”
March 5: “We’re going to have to choose that person along with Iran. We’re going to have to choose that person.”
March 6, 8:50 a.m. EDT: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
March 6, at some point after 8:50 a.m. EDT: “Unconditional surrender could be that [the Iranians] announce it. But it could also be when they can’t fight any longer because they don’t have anyone or anything to fight with.”
March 6, 1:43 p.m. EDT: Karoline Leavitt says, “What the president means is that when he, as commander-in-chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, determines that Iran no longer poses a threat to the United States of America, and the goals of Operation Epic Fury has been fully realized, then Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender, whether they say it themselves or not.”
March 7: “He’s [Iranian national-security official, Ali Larijani] already surrendered to all of the Middle Eastern countries.”