Washington, DC

1. Trump’s big deadline
2. White House war meetings
3. Stocks slide, oil jumps
4. Vance stumps for Orbán
5. Oversight schedules Bill Gates

Paramount shares ▲ 10% on Gulf investment in Warner deal.

Trump’s moment of truth on Iran

President Donald Trump’s threat to wipe out Iranian “civilization” has the world on its toes — and even his closest confidants aren’t sure of his next move, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett report. The president’s 8 pm deadline for a deal with Iran is one of the biggest moments of his presidency, but he’s left himself a path out of brinkmanship. Democrats are criticizing Trump for threatening civilians, and some are demanding his removal from office; even a few Republicans hope Trump’s talk is “bluster.” One person close to the White House said Trump’s Tuesday missive is “strategic ambiguity that throws so many people off,” but there’s public unease among some GOP lawmakers. “I do not support the destruction of a ‘whole civilization,’” said Rep. Nathaniel Moran, R-Texas, in direct response to Trump’s Truth Social post.

NYT chronicles how Trump got to yes

New York Times reporters Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman chronicle the key White House meetings that led to Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set events in motion on Feb. 11, when he claimed that, together, the US and Israel could eliminate Iran’s supreme leader, cripple its military, inspire a popular uprising, and trigger regime change. US intelligence worked through the night to conclude the first two were achievable, but the third and fourth were “detached from reality.” CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Trump in a meeting on Feb. 12 that regime change was “farcical.” Trump sought a final gut check in the Situation Room on Feb. 26, during which every member of Trump’s inner circle present — a group that notably excluded Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright — “deferred to the president’s instincts.”

Stocks slide on Trump threat

Stocks slumped and oil prices spiked on Trump’s morning ultimatum that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran doesn’t acquiesce, a sign that markets remain sensitive to the president’s messages on whether he plans to escalate or wind down the conflict. Traders raced to cover both sides of the equation, The Wall Street Journal reported, prepping their portfolios for both de-escalation and the US “blowing everything up.” Since the war began six weeks ago, Wall Street has closely monitored Trump’s ultimatums, social media posts, and other breaking news. The constant whiplash has left many traders glued to news feeds, while others have stayed on the sidelines amid the uncertainty, waiting for a concrete development before committing to major trades. And some think — or hope — today will be just another “TACO Tuesday.”

Trump makes cameo at Vance speech for Orbán

Vice President JD Vance stumped for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán today, as Orbán’s nationalist party trails badly in the polls ahead of elections Sunday. Vance pulled out his cell phone at a Budapest rally to call Trump, who said through the speaker: “I love Hungary and I love that Viktor.” It’s unusual for US leaders to campaign in foreign elections, though Vance implied earlier that the European Union and Ukraine had interfered in the race and Hungary’s affairs. “They’ve done it all because they hate this guy,” Vance said, standing next to Orbán. The American right, and Trump in particular, has found solidarity with Orbán and his style of nationalist politics. “There have been too few people who have been willing to stand up for the values of Western civilization,” Vance said earlier in the day.

— Lauren Morganbesser

Bill Gates booked for Epstein interview

The House Oversight Committee scheduled a private interview for June 10 with billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates as part of its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, according to a person familiar with the plan. That’s on top of a slate of Epstein probe interviews set up in the coming weeks, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick; Ted Waitt, the billionaire co-founder of Gateway; Tova Noel, a former federal prison guard; and Lesley Groff, a former assistant to Epstein. The Republican-controlled panel is also scheduled to depose former Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 14, though committee chair Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., has said he needed to speak with GOP colleagues about next steps on the Bondi subpoena after her ouster. Bondi met with panel members voluntarily in March, and some Republicans who had voted to subpoena her sounded receptive to withdrawing it.

— Nicholas Wu

Oura, the smart ring favored by executives, finance bros, and Silicon Valley longevity-maxxers, is a big, lucrative business. On this week’s episode of Compound Interest, presented by Amazon Business, Liz and Rohan dive into the economics of that business with CEO Tom Hale, uncovering a surprising key demographic driving Oura’s growth, the financialization of better sleep, and the company’s public market aspirations.

Listen to the latest episode of Compound Interest now.

Iran War

• Overnight, the US conducted more than 50 strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran’s crude exports.
• Some administration officials are questioning Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assessment of Iran’s capabilities. — WaPo
• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif asked President Trump to postpone his deadline by two weeks and implement a ceasefire during the same period in a post on X.

Media

• An Iran-aligned terrorist group in Iraq freed American journalist Shelly Kittleson, who has been held captive since late March.

Politics

• Democrats are introducing rising gas prices as a campaign issue in the midterm elections. — WaPo
• In his first public appearance as acting attorney general, Todd Blanche said the Justice Department is focused on fraud, not going after President Trump’s enemies.
• The Trump administration will keep former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s $70 million jet. — WSJ

Business

• Developers are snapping up office buildings at steep discounts nationwide. — WSJ
• Anthropic will make a preview of its new AI model Mythos available to 50 companies that maintain critical infrastructure.

World

• Russia and China vetoed a resolution at the United Nations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Immigration

• The newlywed wife of a US soldier who was detained last week at her husband’s Army base was released after five days in the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
• ICE arrested more than 800 people following tips ​shared by federal airport security officials from the start of President Trump’s presidency. — Reuters

— Victor Glover, Artemis II pilot, on the views from the far side of the Moon.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel