Global stocks were locked in to one of the strongest rallies after a storming return of risk sentiment tied to the newly agreed cease-fire in the U.S. war with Iran and powered by the biggest pullback in oil prices in half a decade.

But the mood might be best described as one of reaction over belief. While few observers expect the agreement—which offers several key concessions to Tehran, including effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, to hold—it doesn’t pay to stand in front of the massive relief rally set to consume Wall Street. 

The S&P 500 is poised for large gains, oil prices fell around 15%, and traders are resuming bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut now that inflation fears have been set aside with the slow reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

How long the buoyant mood can last, however, is anyone’s guess. A little over an hour before President Donald Trump’s “end of civilization” threat deadline, terms of the cease-fire were revealed—and they heavily favored Iran’s interests. Talks remain fraught with tension and Trump, facing accusations at home of having caved under global pressure, could change course at any time over the next fortnight. 

Iran, meanwhile, may not have the logistic nous to manage the flow of shipping traffic through the strait, where as many as 1,000 vessels remain stuck, and tensions in the region could easily flare up before a formal pact to end the war is agreed by all sides. 

But those issues are for tomorrow. For today, as things currently stand, it’s a resumption of the rally that will put the benchmark on a firm footing heading into next week’s earnings season and a key Fed policy meeting later in the month. 

The bulls are back.

—Martin Baccardax

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Surging oil prices have plagued the market the past few weeks—but the U.S. and Iran struck a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, sending crude prices sharply lower.

• Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that the country would agree to allow “safe passage” of ships through the Strait of Hormuz “if attacks against Iran are halted.” Just minutes earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks if Tehran unblocked the crucial shipping route.

• The cease-fire sparked a sharp selloff in crude. Brent international futures and West Texas Intermediate U.S. futures both plunged more than 10% in early trading on Wednesday.

• Trump’s announcement came a little more than an hour before his 8 p.m. deadline for Iran to reopen the strait was set to expire. The president said in his social media post that he had received a “workable” 10-point plan from Iran.

• The president said in a follow-up post early Wednesday that the U.S. would be “helping with the traffic buildup” through the strait. “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process,” he wrote.

What’s Next: Oil prices remain elevated despite the cease-fire deal. It will take a while for the selloff to filter through to the gas pump, although the U.S. plan to help clear the backlog of ships at the Strait of Hormuz could help.

—George Glover, Emily Russell, and Liz Moyer

After a second federal judge blocked the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the matter now shifts to an appeals court and that process could leave the Fed and its leadership in limbo for months or even years.

• Last week’s ruling rejected prosecutors’ claims that Powell misled Congress about cost overruns tied to the renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said the government hadn’t presented credible evidence of a crime, and the Justice Department vowed to continue the fight.

• Powell has made clear he doesn’t intend to step aside while the case is unresolved. His term as Fed chair expires May 15, but he also holds a seat on the Board of Governors that runs through January 2028, and there is no requirement that he give it up.

• President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, to succeed Powell as chair. But his path forward is now tied to the court timeline. Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, has said he would block a confirmation vote while the investigation remains open.

• A confirmation hearing could still take place in the coming weeks, though Senate officials have offered conflicting timelines and the chamber has confirmed nothing officially. Even if one is scheduled, it wouldn’t necessarily resolve the standoff because without Tillis, there is no clear path to a floor vote.

What’s Next: The uncertainty comes at a complicated moment for the Fed. Inflation is running near 3%, above target. The labor market is showing cracks. Higher oil prices complicate the inflation outlook. The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting are expected to be released later today.

—Nicole Goodkind

Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla are tapping Intel to help realize his AI dreams of creating a vertically integrated semiconductor factory he calls Terafab to create chips specifically for his SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla for everything from humanoid robots to robo-taxis and orbiting data centers.

• Intel announced on X that it was joining Musk’s Terafab project, which aims to produce 1 terawatt a year of computing power for AI and robotics. Chip production is something Musk believes will become a bottleneck for AI in the coming years.

• CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who joined Intel in March 2025, has successfully begun turning the company around. Tuesday’s news announcement included a photo of Tan shaking Musk’s hand. Musk unveiled the plans for Terafab last month, based in Austin, Texas.

• The initial stages of the Terafab project will cost tens of billions of dollars and focus on so-called two-nanometer nodes, representing the state of the art in semiconductor design and manufacturing. But Terafab needs Intel to actually produce the chips.

• The Trump administration, which acquired an equity stake in Intel last year for around $9 billion, held 8.4% of Intel’s shares outstanding as of March 20, according to securities filings. That doesn’t include warrants that could increase its equity stake.

What’s Next: Musk’s companies have previously bought chips from suppliers including Nvidia, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, but Musk expects that they will need more chips than they can get from suppliers.

—Al Root and Janet H. Cho

American car shoppers had cooled on electric vehicles last year after tax credits encouraging their ownership expired in September, and EV sales by big auto makers like Ford Motor and GM fell. But now that we’re back to $4 a gallon gasoline, and used car prices are rising, that could change.

• Cox Automotive released the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a common measure of used car pricing. The index came in at 215.3 in March, up 5% from a year ago and the highest level since May 2023. At the same time, gasoline reached $4.14 a gallon nationwide, according to AAA.

• Searches for all-electric used cars jumped 26% on Cars.com in the last week of March, compared with the last week of February, just before the U.S. attacked Iran and oil and gas prices spiked. Searches for used plug-in hybrids rose 7%, while searches for used traditional hybrids rose 4%.

• Used-EV sales rose to 93,500 vehicles in the first quarter, up from less than 84,000 a year ago, even as new-EV sales are collapsing. Americans bought about 213,000 new all-electric cars in the first quarter, down from almost 300,000 a year ago.

• Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive’s chief economist, said they expect that car dealers are anticipating increased interest for used EVs as gas prices have now risen above $4.00 a gallon. “Dealers are stocking up on EV inventory,” he said.

What’s Next: Used EVs are more expensive than used gasoline-powered cars, but are cheaper to operate and maintain. EV buyers can save $1,000 to $2,000 a year, depending on electricity costs, compared with $4 a gallon gas. More 2023 EVs coming off lease will boost supplies and could lower prices.

—Al Root and Janet H. Cho

Dear Quentin,

I’ve been reading your column for years. 

I would appreciate your advice on whether, given my current family situation, I can plan to exit corporate life. If I have $300,000 in cash saved in a bank in my home country earning 4% interest, I believe I could live comfortably enough on the interest income alone until I reach age 70 and claim Social Security. I would like to keep my 401(k) invested in an 80/20 stock-to-bond allocation well into my 70s and begin Roth conversions once I stop working in my mid-50s.

Here is some background about me:

I am a 50-year-old immigrant, married, and my spouse is the same age. We live in New York City and have been together for 12 years, married for 10. We have a one-year-old child conceived through IVF after years of trying and loss. Our household income is $250,000. My wife is an educator earning $100,000 annually, with a pension and 15 years of service. She contributes 5% to a voluntary 403(b), though there is no employer match.