Thursday, April 9, 2026
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CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS PRICESOil is Back Below $100 - Price Update (as of 10:00 ET):
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WTI Crude
99.35
▲ +5.23%
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Brent Crude
98.04
▲ +3.47%
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Natural Gas
2.711
▼ -0.48%
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Intel 2026: A Real Turnaround, With Real Risks Still Ahead
Intel (INTC) is in the middle of one of the most consequential corporate comebacks in semiconductor history. After years of manufacturing setbacks and market share losses, a convergence of strategic deals, government backing, and genuine process technology progress has pushed the stock to a five-year high.
But the turnaround is real without being complete, and the distinction matters.
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Semiconductor Watch
Intel: Turnaround in Progress
| INTC $58.95 |
52-wk $17.67 – $59.17 |
Mkt Cap ~$295B |
Earnings Apr 23 |
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In Brief
Intel joined Elon Musk's Terafab project this week — its most credible foundry endorsement yet. Shares are at a five-year high. The foundry business is still losing money. Both things matter heading into April 23 earnings.
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Key Numbers
2-Day Move
+15%
+3.5% Tue · +11.4% Wed
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Q4 2025 Revenue
$13.67B
Beat estimates
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Foundry Op. Loss
−$2.51B
Q4 2025 alone
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Free Cash Flow
−$4.5B
FY2025
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Gov. Stake
8.4%
$8.9B invested (Aug 2025)
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Gross Margin
29.7%
GAAP · Q4 2025
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Terafab — What's Real, What Isn't
| ✓ |
Intel is foundry partner: 18A node, packaging, manufacturing scale |
| ✓ |
Targets: Tesla autonomy/robotics, xAI data centers, SpaceX satellites |
| ✓ |
Project cost: reported $20–$25B range (no confirmed figure) |
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Announced via X post. No regulatory filing or financial disclosure yet |
| ✗ |
Morgan Stanley: chip production unlikely before mid-2028 |
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Status
Confirmed
| 18A in HVM since Oct 2025 |
RibbonFET + PowerVia: first ever combo |
| Panther Lake + Clearwater Forest shipping |
Stakeholders
| Nvidia ~4% · $23.28/sh |
US Gov ~8.4% · $20.47/sh |
Not Yet / Risk
| 14A: pilot only · HVM not before 2027+ |
Dividend suspended
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Analyst Targets
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KeyBanc — Overweight · $70 |
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Wells Fargo — Equal-Weight · $55 |
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UBS — Neutral · $52 |
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DA Davidson — Neutral · $45 |
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Consensus (32 analysts) — Hold · ~$44–$47 |
Stock is trading above every consensus target except KeyBanc.
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Next Catalyst
Q1 2026 Earnings — Thursday, April 23, after close
Watch: 18A yield progress · Terafab deal structure · Foundry customer pipeline · Q2 guidance after supply-chain miss last quarter
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Data as of April 8–9, 2026. Not investment advice. Analyst targets from public sources; consensus from Yahoo Finance / Investing.com.
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Outlook: Genuine Progress, Unfinished Business
Intel's turnaround is real. The 18A node works. The government is a committed shareholder. Nvidia, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI are customers. The stock reflects genuine optimism, not just speculation.
But process leadership is not yet reclaimed, which will depend on whether 14A reaches production on schedule with paying external customers. Free cash flow is still negative.
The AI accelerator market remains dominated by Nvidia, with Intel competing primarily in inference and CPU workloads rather than large-scale AI training. And the Terafab partnership, while strategically significant, is a foundry services contract, not a transformation of Intel's competitive position in chip design.
Intel in 2026 is a company with strong momentum and significant execution risk still ahead. Both things are true simultaneously.
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