The precarious two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran held yesterday, but the dust is far from settled. The agreement’s durability remains up in the air, and economic chaos is still afoot.

Whether the peace lasts hinges on talks in Pakistan this weekend, where the US is dispatching Vice President JD Vance to negotiate a longer-term accord with Iran. Meanwhile, Israel agreed to talk directly with Lebanon to end its military campaign against the militant group Hezbollah, which Iran insists was a condition of its ceasefire with the US.

The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% yesterday amid cautious optimism about efforts to achieve lasting peace, a muted reaction compared to Wednesday’s “relief rally.”

Not back to business as usual

Iran released a map yesterday for vessels to safely transit the mine-laden Strait of Hormuz, but there’s still no welcome sign for boats of all flags:

• Iran says it’s charging some ships $2 million to sail through the strait, subjecting the waterway to a tolling system that violates international law.
• Safety risks and concerns about whether paying the toll would violate sanctions are leaving ship owners reluctant to sail through Hormuz. Traffic in the strait was below 10% of its prewar levels yesterday.

Analysts expect oil prices to stay elevated at least through the end of the year, likely keeping gas and airfare prices higher.

Meanwhile, natural gas disruptions—which Goldman Sachs warns could last for a while, impacting electricity costs—are also driving up prices for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer. A third of the world’s supply of the vital farming input is produced in the Gulf region from natural gas and passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Some economic damage is irreversible…with the IMF warning yesterday that it will lower its global economic growth projection for 2026 (3.3%) to account for permanent losses, even if peace endures.—SK

Reports: The DOJ is investigating the NFL’s TV deals. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Justice Department opened a probe into the NFL to determine whether the league uses anticompetitive tactics to hurt consumers. The precise nature of the investigation was unclear, but lawmakers have raised concerns about how expensive it can be for fans to watch games due to the NFL’s labyrinth of rights deals with TV networks and streaming services. In a statement to NBC News, the NFL defended its distribution model, calling it “the most fan and broadcaster-friendly in the entire sports and entertainment industry.” A 1961 broadcasting law gives the league some antitrust protection, but critics argue it’s outdated in the age of streaming.

The US fertility rate dropped to another record low. Last year, the number of births per 1,000 women of reproductive age fell by about 1%—an all-time low, per new federal data. That rate is down by nearly 20% from two decades ago. Despite a growing pronatalist movement, American women are waiting to have children later in life, while some are deciding not to due to concerns about the economy, climate change, and healthcare. Experts told CNN that a decline in the birth rate can be an economic “drag” on the US, as it reduces demand and labor force.

New Disney CEO’s first order of business: layoffs. Disney is reportedly planning to cut as many as 1,000 jobs, as part of a cost-cutting initiative under CEO Josh D’Amaro, who took over as head of the Mouse House last month. Per CNBC, the layoffs are expected to primarily impact the company’s marketing department, which was consolidated under the newly created role of chief marketing and brand officer in January, when Bob Iger was still CEO. Disney’s parks and cruises business remains a strong profit center, but the company faces questions around its stock price, franchise fatigue, and linear TV’s decline.—AE

The annual letter to Amazon shareholders was 5,000 words, but it could be summed up in seven: We’re gonna keep throwing money at AI. Yesterday, CEO Andy Jassy doubled down on the company’s plan to spend more than any other tech company this year on AI, data centers, chips, robotics, and satellites.

“We’re not investing approximately $200 billion in capex in 2026 on a hunch,” Jassy wrote. The letter said:

• Amazon expects to start making its money back next year on multibillion-dollar deals with customers like OpenAI.
• Revenue from AI services and chips is booming, with customers wanting “better price-performance” for chips—a subtle jab at Nvidia.

Jassy warned that Amazon is OK with being strapped for cash flow in the short term because it anticipates a major payoff from AI, which Jassy called a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.” “We’re not going to be conservative in how we play this,” he said.

Where the capex will go: Reiterating Amazon’s previously announced plans, Jassy said its hefty AI investing will support efforts to further robotize its warehouses, grow its soon-to-launch network of Starlink-competing satellites, and expand rural and drone-aided delivery.

Zoom out: Shares of Amazon had been down this year as investors questioned its $200 billion capex plan, but yesterday’s remarks putted the stock into the green.—ML

A guy who would definitely have a garage full of souped-up weed wackers and “better hammers” if he weren’t a world-class golfer is debuting a 3D-printed 5-iron at the Masters this week. Bryson DeChambeau, known in the golf world as “The Scientist,” got the green light from the USGA yesterday to use an iron that he designed and printed himself.

You might recognize DeChambeau from his TikTok stunts and friendship with Kevin Hart. (He has also won two US Opens, in 2020 and 2024.) He’s never won a Masters, but he got close last year, finishing fifth.

But if your golf knowledge is limited to whatever minimal skills you picked up during a weeklong middle-school camp you didn’t want to attend, DeChambeau is best known for tinkering with his clubs and trying other kooky strategies to give himself an edge (and hitting the ball crazy far). He helped popularize the once-controversial single-length irons.

Will he win this thing? Despite rolling into the tournament with a lot of hype following back-to-back wins on the LIV Golf tour, DeChambeau triple bogeyed the 11th hole yesterday during Round 1. No one has ever come back from something like that to win the Masters. Maybe he can 3D print a green jacket.—MM

The trillions of dollars being poured into AI may transform the world, but it isn’t stopping young people from thinking it’s mid, cringe, and, worst of all, chopped. According to a recent Gallup survey, Gen Zers have become angrier and less excited and hopeful about the tech in the last year:

• Angry: 22% (2025) → 31% (2026)
• Excited: 36% → 22%
• Hopeful: 27% → 18%

Employed Gen Zers are also more than three times as likely to say the risks of using AI at work (48%) outweigh the benefits than vice versa. That may be because of all the AI-related layoffs, but who’s to say?—AE