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Last Sunday, in “The Week Ahead,” we discussed Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán’s election problem. He and his Christian nationalist far-right political party, Fidesz, were seriously behind in polling just a week ahead of the election. And we spent some time with my friend Kim Scheppele, parsing the staggering control Orbán exerts over Hungary’s political institutions, like off-the-charts gerrymandering that could have permitted him to maintain control in Parliament, even if he suffered a loss in the popular vote.
But today, Orbán lost that election. He was forced to concede defeat because of the staggeringly large margin of victory by which his opponent, Péter Magyar, won. With 99% of the vote counted tonight, the opposition looks like it will take 2/3 of the seats in parliament. The BBC characterized it as “the type of landslide victory that means they will be able to make sweeping changes to the country.”
There is an obvious lesson for us here. Turnout matters; it may be the only thing that matters, both this year and in 2028. It becomes increasingly difficult for Trump and MAGA to contest races that are lost, not just by 11,779 votes (looking at you, 2020 Georgia), but by the kind of substantial margins turnout for the most recent No Kings Day march suggests Americans may be preparing to deliver. It’s hard to dispute an election that is won by 10 points or more, and much easier for courts to dispense with the inevitable challenges Trump’s party will bring nonetheless.
So, lesson learned: Whether you bring one or two friends along with you to the polls or work on a major get-out-the-vote effort in your state, for the rest of the time before the midterm elections, the work we do is going to matter. Find the best thing you can do and give it all of your effort. Politicians can’t blame an enormous margin of victory like the one in Hungary on fraud, non-citizen voting, or any of Trump’s other crazy election conspiracy theories. Some margins are too big to deny. Let’s go!
This is the site of Magyar’s election night rally as the polls closed:
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After the polls closed, Orban’s Chief of Staff read a prepared statement on television saying that they would have to wait until the votes came in to determine the outcome, but observers said he “looked ashen,” an indication they were anticipating bad news.
The loss was especially bad news for JD Vance, who spent time in Hungary last week in an unprecedented move for an American leader, openly campaigning for the Putin-aligned Orbán. The Republican Party, of course, remained silent about that. Hopefully, Vance will campaign across the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections.
Swalwell Out of the Governor’s Race
California Congressman Eric Swalwell announced earlier this evening that he is withdrawing from the Governor’s race in that state. In a prepared statement, he wrote: “To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past." But he continues to deny allegations of sexual assault. He said he’d continue to fight to clear his name, but “that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.” A former staffer told the San Francisco Chronicle that Swalwell sexually assaulted her. CNN reported that four women “described sexual misconduct” by Swalwell, including one who alleged he had raped her.
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Democratic strategist Ally Sammarco came forward with allegations that in 2021, when she was first trying to find a place on Capitol Hill, Swalwell responded to a DM asking for his advice and ended up inappropriately sexting her. She said she came forward to support other women because she thought she was the only one before she saw the “recent reports online that some women were about to accuse the longtime congressman of sexual misconduct.” The messages on Snapchat, where she said the Congressman asked her to communicate with him, were no longer available. But Twitter DMs that established they’d be in contact were reviewed by the Washington Post, with one referring to Sammarco as a “bad angel” who had tempted him.
It’s important that when serious allegations like this are made, they are taken seriously. For far too long, our culture was one that didn’t believe women. Swalwell, who maintains his misconduct is between him and his wife and that he did nothing criminal, is entitled to the same due process as anyone else accused of a crime—the Manhattan DA’s office has reportedly opened an investigation into an alleged assault in New York City. But it matters that these allegations are taken seriously. It’s incredibly difficult for victims to come forward. They may think they are the only ones and won’t be believed. They may be concerned that people will think it was their fault. As E. Jean Carroll testified during her defamation case against Donald Trump, she didn’t report his assault at the time because close friends advised her that her career and ability to make a living would be ruined.
But not all of the consequences in a situation like this involve criminal prosecution. The Washington Post reported: “In a video late Friday denying the allegations of sexual assault, Swalwell said he had ‘certainly made mistakes in judgment in my past’ that were ‘between me and my wife.’” Then it continued, “In a social media post, [Congressman Jared] Huffman, a fellow California Democrat, said Swalwell had all but admitted ‘a per se abuse of power’ under House ethics rules, which prohibit House members from having sexual relationships with subordinates.”
Huffman is one of a number of Democrats calling for Swalwell’s expulsion from the House.
Swalwell has alleged that the timing of the allegations is political. They will undoubtedly create chaos in the California Governor’s race. The situation also has echoes of Al Franken’s resignation from the Senate, and the fact that Democrats take allegations of sexual misconduct seriously, while Republicans don’t. We’re still waiting on the truth about Trump and the Epstein files.