It’s Monday, April 13. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Why Orbán lost. Why the AI crash will hit us all. Why even chimps wage war. And much more.

But first: Did Iran just blow it?

The mullahs had a rough weekend. Forty-eight hours ago, the ceasefire in Iran looked like the beginning of the end of the war—a first step by President Donald Trump toward pulling out and accepting a new status quo with the regime intact. But then talks collapsed and now Trump is escalating.

American destroyers are patrolling the Strait of Hormuz with both offensive and defensive aims. If Iran opens the waterway to free-flowing traffic, U.S. ships will be there to escort commercial vessels through. But if the regime continues charging a toll for the passage, the United States will close the gate.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Sunday. And the strait isn’t his only target. By that evening, government sources said the U.S. is considering strikes in Iran’s interior. In other words, the war is back on.

What changed in a weekend? The White House got its closest look yet at how stubborn their counterparts are. Weeks after its supreme leader was killed, and facing even more destruction, the regime shot down every firm U.S. demand during marathon negotiations in Pakistan. What were they thinking, with so much at stake? Eli Lake explains the Iranians’ approach at the crossroads of the war.

Few could have predicted Trump’s renewed pressure campaign, and reopening the strait will require tactical genius. But Zineb Riboua believes it will be more than worth the effort. That’s because closing the waterway is the last card Iran holds. If the U.S. calls its bluff by successfully keeping it open, there will be nothing left to negotiate.

President Trump seems to seize every opportunity to talk things through, preferring a masterful deal over risking even a single American life. But one of Trump’s former advisers thinks the president was wrong to ever slow down. John Bolton spoke to The Free Press’s Nicholas Clairmont before the negotiations over the weekend, and made the early case for how U.S. armed forces can press ahead.

In many ways, the war is pushing America’s military outside its zone of mastery. One difficult new dimension consists of drones, which the Navy has at times struggled to repel over the strait and across Iran. Americans have much to learn from Ukraine, which has mastered drone warfare over years of combat with the Russians. Aidan Stretch describes how U.S. companies are racing to adapt the cutting-edge tech that’s dominating a new front.

—The Editors

The Hungarians Who Just Threw Out Orbán

Will Collins

After 16 years in office, Europe’s longest-serving head of government has been kicked out by the voters. Will Collins reports from Hungary on Viktor Orbán’s decisive loss in Sunday’s election, and how a stalled economy, a charismatic ally-turned-opponent, and a generation fed up with corruption brought him down. Read full story

The AI Boom Was Great for Your 401(k). The Bust Won’t Be.

Bethany McLean

The safe approach to investing is over—thanks to AI. Millions of Americans have done exactly what the experts advised with their retirement savings, putting all their eggs in a big, diversified basket. But today, seven behemoth companies dominate the market, and they’re betting everything on a commercial AI boom that isn’t yet in evidence. Bethany McLean describes how an AI crash could play out—and who will tumble along with the companies. Read full story

Satoshi Has the Right to Hide. We Have the Right to Search for Him.

Tyler Cowen

A “New York Times” investigation claims to have unmasked the man known as Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s elusive creator, as British crypto CEO Adam Back. Tyler Cowen weighs the evidence and argues that even with poker tells and circumstantial clues, identifying Satoshi ultimately comes down to whom you choose to trust. “Societies should value knowing the truth very highly,” Cowen writes, “even if not everyone ends up better off.” Read full story

Even the Chimps Are Going to War

Tanner Nau

A study 30 years in the making, published last week in “Science,” announced an explosive finding: The largest known group of wild chimpanzees, located in Uganda’s Kibale National Park, is locked in a bloody civil war. Tanner Nau asked evolutionary biologist Colin Wright to explain what turned these Ngogo chimpanzees against each other, whether their civil war can be stopped, and what it tells us about humans. Read full story

The Liberal Case for American Power

Coleman Hughes