Good morning. Andrew here. Why was there a huge disconnect between equity investors, who spent the past week chasing cease-fire headlines, and oil traders, who remained cynical (as did many geopolitical experts)? Now we know who was right: the oil traders, as the talks ended without a deal. We’ve got the implications of all of this below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
The price of a Hormuz blockadeInvestors and business leaders who had hoped for some stability in the Middle East are out of luck. Washington is threatening to blockade some traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, drawing promises of retaliation from Tehran. It’s the latest sign that the weekslong war is far from being resolved and poses significant economic risks to the global economy. The latest:
The strait remains the thing to watch. U.S. Central Command said that the military would block ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas starting at 10 a.m. Eastern. American forces won’t impede other traffic through the strait, a critical waterway for much of the world’s oil and gas shipments, CENTCOM added. That threat, seemingly intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table, appears to be less restrictive than the “complete blockade” that President Trump had mentioned yesterday. But it’s also a significant change from last month, when the U.S. said Iranian tankers would be allowed through the strait to cushion any shock to global energy markets. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase wrote in a research note yesterday that the last oil tanker to clear the strait on Feb. 28 is expected to reach port next week, “marking the point at which pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain.”
A U.S. blockade would have serious consequences for Iran. Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit think tank that is hawkish on Iran, estimated that it could cost the Iranian economy $13 billion a month. Iran has said that it would retaliate, with a military spokesman saying today that “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe” if the U.S. follows through. It could also have wider repercussions. If Washington imposes a blockade, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, warned yesterday, “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.” Trump suggested yesterday that U.S. gas prices may not come down before midterm elections in November — and might be “a little bit higher.” But he’s also trying to argue that the uncertainty around the strait is a reason for other countries to buy more U.S. oil, a pitch that some analysts say falls a little flat. (Higher-for-longer gas prices will also probably hurt Republicans in those elections.) The prospect of more energy shocks is darkening the global economic picture, as finance officials head to Washington this week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The I.M.F. is expected to downgrade its outlook for the world economy for the rest of the year.
Viktor Orban’s electoral defeat augurs a potential shift for Hungary and the E.U. Investors cheered the news today, pushing up the value of Hungarian stocks and the forint, the country’s currency. Over 16 years, the authoritarian Orban — whose allies included Presidents Trump and Vladimir Putin — had repeatedly frustrated E.U. policy goals on matters like Ukraine and Russia. (Keep an eye on a €90 billion loan to Ukraine that had been frozen for weeks because of Orban’s objections.) The F.T.C. is said to be in settlement talks with advertising companies. The potential move, The Wall Street Journal reports, would end investigations into ad giants, including WPP and Publicis, over whether they had illegally coordinated campaigns to dissuade clients from spending on certain online platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A federal judge last month dismissed a lawsuit by X against some advertisers it had accused of organizing an illegal boycott. Mayor Zohran Mamdani plans to open a city-owned grocery store. The location, set to operate in East Harlem in Manhattan and cost roughly $30 million, is meant to fulfill a key campaign pledge. The idea of municipal grocery stores — which has gained some traction nationwide — had become a major source of contention during the mayoral election, with some business owners likening it to Soviet-style bread lines. An earnings season on edgeStock traders have largely discounted the potential impact of war in the Middle East. The S&P 500 is down less than 1 percent so far this year, and most analysts remain bullish on the benchmark index. Those convictions face a major test this week, as earnings season kicks off in earnest. Goldman Sachs just reported blowout first-quarter profits, helped by robust trading revenues and a surge in its investment banking division; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock and Wells Fargo are set to report results tomorrow. The financial giants are among those whose results will offer a window into the state of the economy and Wall Street amid soaring oil prices and resurgent inflation. What to expect: Analysts estimate first-quarter earnings growing by 12.6 percent, according to FactSet, a sixth-straight quarter of double-digit gains. But investors will pay close attention to what C.E.O.s say (or don’t say) about the year ahead, especially if the war continues. Last week, Delta Air Lines reported solid earnings, but withdrew its full-year guidance amid uncertainty about global trade. “I think our economy is going to continue to lose steam,” Ed Bastian, the airline’s C.E.O., told CNBC. Corporate confidence is under pressure. In a note to investors yesterday, Lori Calvasina, the head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, laid out what her team will be watching:
Investors should brace for profit warnings if the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for oil, trades above $90 a barrel for the next six to eight weeks, Scott Chronert, the head of U.S. equities strategy at Citigroup, wrote to clients on Friday. Chronert foresees a good quarter for companies over all, but, he added, “macro headwinds may not yet be factored in.” Don’t forget the Fed. With inflation climbing again, the futures market this morning sees no interest rate cuts by the central bank before September 2027. (One question: How much will C.E.O.s talk about disruption by artificial intelligence, an issue that Fed policymakers raised at their last meeting?) “Everyone’s talking about oil, but I think what the world is mainly short of is tokens.”— Ben Pouladian, an engineer and tech investor, referring to a measurement in artificial intelligence. The rapid growth of A.I. use — especially for agent software — is leading to a shortage in processing resources. Boom times for cybersecurity A.I.Anthropic jolted many last week with the announcement of its latest model, whose coding abilities are so powerful that the company feared releasing it too broadly risked widespread cybersecurity attacks. The growing threat of artificial intelligence to digital infrastructure is worrying even senior U.S. government officials. But it’s also creating a boom for some cybersecurity start-ups, Niko Gallogly reports. A.I. has made it easier to conduct big digital attacks. Increasingly sophisticated models are better at finding security vulnerabilities, and agents can automate the work of exploiting those weaknesses, such as by sending phishing emails or writing exploitative code. A.I. coding tools have also led to an explosion in code, which means that there are even more vulnerabilities to attack. So-called vibecoding apps have “given users a tool that I don’t think most users are really prepared to understand and to use well,” Justin Cappos, a cybersecurity expert at New York University’s department of computer science and engineering, told DealBook. “If you invent the hammer, and then everyone has a hammer, you know, you’re going to end up with a lot of smashed thumbs.” Companies are turning to A.I. to protect against A.I. More than 50 percent of the cybersecurity companies funded last year were for A.I.-native companies, according to data from PitchBook. “Trillions” of dollars’ worth of market share in cybersecurity up for grabs is driving an investor stampede, Yoni Rechtman, a partner at the venture capital firm Slow Ventures who invests in cybersecurity start-ups, told DealBook. Last year, venture capitalists invested $16.5 billion in cybersecurity start-ups, up 27 percent year-on-year, according to PitchBook. Large technology companies are also buying A.I.-enabled security start-ups. In February, Palo Alto Networks acquired the A.I. cybersecurity start-up CyberArk for about $25 billion. Alphabet last month closed its biggest-ever acquisition, the $32 billion takeover of the cybersecurity firm Wiz, a deal partly meant to help customers protect against A.I. threats. (Cisco is reportedly in talks to buy Astrix Security, another start-up, for at least $250 million.) Rechtman added that there was another benefit for newer cybersecurity start-ups: “No one is vibecoding security infrastructure,” he said. Not all cybersecurity companies are riding high, however. Shares in CrowdStrike are down 19 percent for the year to date, while those in Palo Alto Networks are down 15 percent.
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