Good morning. Thomas Morgan here with your Thursday AM NewsMail.

A major blaze has broken out at one of Australia's two oil refineries, with authorities issuing a watch and act warning to residents in Geelong in the early hours of this morning. But first, correspondent Matthew Doran with his analysis of the latest developments from the Middle East.

Plus, why the Coalition's proposed changes to the first homebuyer scheme could lock more permanent residents out of the housing market, and Queensland councils propose a new way to protect their residents from skyrocketing insurance premiums.

Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran here in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It's the end of day 47 of the war, day eight of the ceasefire (except in Lebanon) and day three of the US's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the week since it has halted its attacks on Iran, Israel has focused its firepower on Lebanon.

It says it's been attacking claimed Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon and the capital, Beirut.

But those attacks over the past eight days have killed scores of civilians, as their attacks have done in the past six weeks of the war.

Lebanon's health ministry said the death toll was now 2,167, with 7,061 people injured.

Two hundred and sixty women have been killed and 1,150 have been injured. 172 children have been killed and 656 have been injured.

On one day, the first day of the ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed more than 300 people, many of them women and children, in an attack the Lebanese government has complained to the United Nations about.

Those incredibly shocking figures rattled the White House. Donald Trump said he had told Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to rein it in.

Now, it appears that pressure may be tipping the balance in favour of a pause in the bloodshed in Lebanon — but it doesn't appear a deal has been reached just yet.

Hezbollah has continued to attack Israel in response to its strikes. There was a barrage of 40 rockets fired into northern Israel on Wednesday morning, local time alone, according to Israeli authorities.

Hezbollah-affiliated media was saying the prospect of a ceasefire was due to pressure from Tehran. Israeli media was saying its pressure was from Washington.

Either way, it could be brief respite for the population living in a state of chaos.

We'll wait to see how it plays out in the coming hours, but the early reporting in the Lebanese media that a deal was imminent seemed to be dashed by Mr Netanyahu.

His office released a video roughly an hour after the Israeli security cabinet was due to meet where he said he'd instructed the IDF to "strengthen" its so-called "security zone" in southern Lebanon.

He said Israeli forces were about to "overwhelm" the town of Bint Jbeil, a "great stronghold of Hezbollah".

They're certainly not the words of a man about to press pause on fighting. But that doesn't mean such an announcement isn't coming soon.

Israel's Channel 12 cited a senior Israeli political source as saying: "Within a few days, we will have no choice but to fully cease fire in Lebanon."

And while Mr Netanyahu's great friend, Mr Trump, suggested the broader ceasefire would hold, the Israeli prime minister sounded more cautious.

"In the face of the possibility that fighting will resume, we are prepared for any scenario," he said.

Thanks for joining me. You can keep track of the latest updates from Iran and around the world throughout the day via our live blog.

• Geelong refinery fire: Firefighters are battling an out-of-control blaze at one of the nation's two remaining oil refineries. Overnight, authorities issued a watch and act alert to people in numerous Geelong suburbs after residents reported "explosions and flames" at the facility.
• Tracking the trackers: As part of an investigation into the numerous fuel supply dashboards that have popped up since the Iran war began, ABC News Verify can reveal the creators of one such site, which has been used to attack the government, has links to the Liberal Party. That dashboard has been getting prominent air time and column inches in News Corp outlets, including in its mastheads and on Sky News.
• Defence spending boost: Another $53 billion will be poured into our military amid "intensifying" risks. The federal government is about to publish its latest National Defence Strategy as it faces overseas pressure to commit more to Australia's own defence.
• Analysis with David Speers: Australians are paying the price for a war they did not want, and the federal government's frustration with Washington is growing as a result. Ministers are now openly expressing a desire for the war to end, and worrying how our military will keep pace with a strategic environment worsening by the month.

• Help Enterprises: An award-winning Brisbane-based charity has made about 40 employees with a disability redundant. The chief executive says it is due to the loss of a contract, but one of the people out of work after 20 years of service says he feels "empty".
• First home buyer proposal: The Coalition wants to block non-citizens from accessing the government's 5 per cent deposit scheme under its migration changes. But multicultural groups say such a move could lock permanent residents out of the housing market.
• Short-stay levy: The number of new holiday rentals being put onto the market in Victoria has slowed significantly in the months since a tax on providers like Airbnb and Stayz was introduced. And now new data shows it has also netted the state government an unexpected windfall.
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"You're left to ransom to either insure with the company you're with or don't insure at all."