Washington, DC

1. Iran, US diplomacy push
2. Greer speaks on China
3. Dems’ new leverage
4. House war powers test
5. Leading Dems demur
6. NJ special election
7. US lags on environment

PDB: Democratic opposition to Israel aid mounts

Trump says Israel, Lebanon to speak … Kennedy testifies before House Ways and Means … G20 finance ministers meet in DC

Iran, US could extend ceasefire

Iran and the US are reportedly considering extending their two-week ceasefire, as diplomatic efforts for fresh peace talks gathered pace. Setting the tone for possible negotiations, President Donald Trump said Iran’s new regime was “pretty reasonable” and suggested a deal was close. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry told Semafor World Economy that he expected an agreement soon, saying that Trump’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would likely bring Tehran back to the negotiating table. Stocks rose on the hopes of new talks, while oil stabilized below $100 a barrel. It came as the White House threatened sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil to intensify its naval blockade on the strait — a move that effectively targets China, which before the war bought more than 80% of Iran’s crude exports. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the threat of secondary sanctions would likely lead China to pause purchases.

Greer: Pragmatists the ‘real China hawks’

As Trump’s anticipated summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping draws nearer, Trump’s trade representative is defending the administration’s policies as “pragmatic.” “There are things we need to import from China. There are things China should be buying from us. And China agrees with us on that,” Jamieson Greer told Liz Hoffman at Semafor World Economy on Wednesday. Asked about pushback from so-called China hawks, Greer grew impassioned: “Who’s a real China hawk? Someone who wants to blow up the relationship in a totally unrealistic way? To me, a real China hawk, whatever you want to call it, is someone who’s pragmatic and who sees that this is a generational challenge.” He also laid out what a US-China board of investment could look like (something Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought up earlier this week) and denied that export controls are “on the table.”

Dems wield power on national security votes

Democrats are in an unusual situation: Republicans need their votes on two key national security matters. That has Democrats weighing how to use their ample leverage on expiring surveillance powers and Iran funding. Today, the House will once again try to pass the 18-month FISA extension over the opposition of conservatives to the warrantless surveillance powers, likely requiring Democratic votes. Republicans will need more assistance in the Senate. The Trump administration seems to recognize the need for bipartisan outreach on defense funding, inviting Sens. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Chris Coons, D-Del., for a meeting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday. While Coons seems open to that discussion, he said extending FISA is harder for him given the lack of engagement from the administration. Still, one Senate Democrat predicted there will be 60 votes for it next week given the national security importance. 

— Burgess Everett

House Dems to force war powers vote

House Democrats plan to force another vote today to rein in the Trump administration’s war in Iran. They might still come up short, but Democratic leaders are hopeful they’ll be able to narrow the margin compared to previous failed votes. Several House Democrats like centrist Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, who previously voted against the measure, have said they’ll now support it, and among Republicans, Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., has signaled she might vote for it as well. While Trump has broad GOP support now, some Republicans have signaled they could buck the president if he deploys ground troops, or if the conflict drags on past the 60-day limit outlined in the War Powers Act. Lawmakers are still waiting for a war funding request too. On the other side of the Capitol, the latest Senate vote on war powers failed again yesterday, 47-52.

— Nicholas Wu

Democrats demur on big political questions

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., is still not sure about a 2028 presidential run, he said at Semafor World Economy on Wednesday. “I will make a decision about that, and so far I’m undecided,” he said. And Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., is sitting out endorsing in the California gubernatorial race he declined to enter. “I have not endorsed in the race, especially after having considered it last summer,” Padilla said at Semafor World Economy. “Let the people of California decide who their representatives are going to be.” At least one Republican who spoke to Semafor this week is avoiding a tough political question, too: SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler, who lost her Georgia Senate election in 2021, deflected when asked if she would advise Trump to make an endorsement in the upcoming, messy Georgia Republican primary. “The president doesn’t need political advice from me,” Loeffler said.

Most CEOs have not woken up to the fact that technology is as important as their balance sheet, IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna says in the latest episode of The CEO Signal. The first technologist to lead the company in its 115-year history unpacks how he approaches high-stakes decision-making in moments of rapid technological change — including the initially controversial acquisition of Red Hat that he thinks landed him his current role.

Krishna makes the case for why CEOs need to place bold bets, even when the payoff won’t be quick. And he cautions his fellow CEOs not to wait to start working out what quantum computing will mean for their companies. “You’d better start thinking about it now,” he says.

Listen to the latest episode of The CEO Signal now.

Sherrill seat expected to stay blue

Democrats expect to win Thursday’s special election in New Jersey, filling the seat vacated by now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia, who won the Democratic nomination after a pro-Israel PAC’s spending backfired, doubled Republican Joe Hathaway in fundraising and led by 17 points in a mid-March poll shared with Semafor. Kamala Harris won the Democratic-trending seat outside New York City by 17 points, and Republicans didn’t rally for Hathaway. House Speaker Mike Johnson didn’t commit resources to the race, and spent last weekend instead in Virginia, where Republicans hoped to defeat a redistricting amendment that could hand four of their seats to Democrats. More than half of the votes cast early or by mail as of last night came from registered Democrats. A Mejia victory would give her party 214 seats in the House, with one remaining vacancy created by Eric Swalwell.

— David Weigel

US is outlier on environment optimism

People living in countries across the globe feel more optimistic about efforts to save the environment than they have in two decades — but not in the US. According to new Gallup data from 140 countries, a median of 57% of adults said they are happy with environmental protection efforts in the countries where they live, a 20-year high despite signs of deteriorating environmental conditions. That’s not the case in the US, where the Trump administration has pulled back on climate commitments and focused on promoting fossil fuels. As of 2025, when the latest poll was taken, 42% of American adults said they are satisfied with environmental preservation efforts, behind the average of 56% for advanced economies in the OECD. The figure hit a high of 60% in the US in 2014, during Barack Obama’s administration.

Is cancel culture over for campaigns?

As Semafor’s David Weigel watched Rev. Al Sharpton at his recent conference, he writes, “my mind turned to a topic I’d kept it safely away from: the Democrats’ fight over Hasan Piker.” The drama over the popular left-wing Twitch streamer started with a March 19 op-ed from leaders of Third Way arguing that “Hasan Piker and his fellow Jew-haters belong” on the other side of a bright line. Five days later, Michigan Democratic Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed announced a rally with Piker, whom El-Sayed’s primary opponents condemned. Like the young Sharpton, Piker is trying to steer the Democratic Party by encouraging people who agree with him to get involved with it. No matter how much a party might like to try, voters can’t be controlled when it comes to what they watch and listen to. And many voters are putting up with language and content that used to be campaign-killers.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “It means that Netanyahu really screwed up the politics of the Middle East, and he is destroying the bipartisan nature in terms of support for Israel,” said Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., after 40 Senate Democrats voted to block a US weapons sale to Israel.

Playbook: President Trump’s legal threats against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have led Powell to grow more resolved to hang onto his seat on the central bank’s board after his chairmanship expires.

Axios: “This crisis has the potential to last at least a year,” Axios Middle East expert Barak Ravid said of the instability sparked by the Iran war.

White House

• President Trump’s public comments backtracking on a campaign promise to make childcare more affordable disrupted bipartisan progress on the issue. — WaPo
• The Trump administration ended the lease for the building housing the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, an agency Trump has sought to dismantle.