Washington, DC

1. Lutnick lambastes Carney
2. Markets optimistic on Iran
3. DHS shutdown ‘wreaking havoc’
4. Breakneck FISA negotiations
5. Mood this week

Today at Semafor World Economy — India’s chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran: “If the current ceasefire holds… by the end of the third quarter, energy supply and prices should normalize.”

Lutnick lashes out at Canada

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick today trashed Canada and its prime minister, Mark Carney, as the US prepares to review the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement this year. Asked at Semafor World Economy about Canada’s former trade chief suggesting time is on Canada’s side in talks, Lutnick responded: “That is like the worst strategy I’ve ever heard. They suck. They — look, we are a $30 trillion economy, right? Carney has a problem with us; he gets on a plane and he goes to China. Does he think China’s… going to buy his stuff? China is an entirely export-driven economy.” On Carney lowering trade barriers for Chinese electric vehicles, Lutnick asked: “I mean, is this nuts?” The White House is expected to share its USMCA position by June 1. As of now, President Donald Trump thinks it’s “a bad deal,” Lutnick said. A Commerce spokesperson said Lutnick was “misquoted.”

Iran tests definition of ‘open’ in Strait of Hormuz

The definition of “open,” when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, is up for debate. This morning markets reacted with exuberance to a post by Iran’s foreign minister on X that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open,” with oil prices falling about 10% within two hours, and the S&P 500 crossed 7100 for the first time. But after markets closed, The Wall Street Journal reported Tehran intends to limit ship volume and charge tolls during the ceasefire. Earlier today, the US reportedly proposed a uranium-for-cash deal that would give Tehran access to $20 billion, if they give up their fissile material. Meanwhile, leaders of Hezbollah made a “cautious commitment” to honor the terms of a 10-day ceasefire negotiated between Lebanon and Israel, buying time for an even more complicated challenge of turning the temporary truce into a lasting peace.

Duffy warns shutdown is ‘wreaking havoc’

The Department of Homeland Security shutdown has receded from headlines, but Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned today it is putting Americans at risk. “My hope is that we don’t have to have something really bad happen in this country,” Duffy said in an interview at Semafor World Economy this morning, adding that the funding standoff is “wreaking havoc on homeland security.” Duffy, a former lawmaker, said Congress is “leveraging the safety of the American people” in a political disagreement. Trump signed an executive order in March directing TSA workers to be paid, but DHS warned workers this month that their next paycheck is uncertain. Duffy also reported progress on a safety challenge in his own department —the air traffic controller shortage. DOT’s new program to recruit gamers is off to a good start, he said: 6,000 people applied on the first day.

Senate keeps FISA program online… for now

The Senate passed a 10-day extension of expiring foreign surveillance authorities, buying time for Congress to put together a deal that includes new protections for Americans that will satisfy libertarian-leaning Republicans and Democratic critics of the program. It was not without drama: Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., weighed whether to block the short extension, but after speaking to congressional allies he decided to let it through. They reasoned that an expiration of the program on Monday night would actually make changes to the program less likely; Wyden said he’s “going to the mat” to stop backdoor searches of Americans. Now Congress has until April 30 to figure things out — and after the debacle in the House overnight, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said it “kind of looks like” the Senate may take the lead on the surveillance negotiations.

— Burgess Everett

Rapture and rupture

The mood at Semafor World Economy this week tracked the giddy markets. American political leaders made sure to push the AI-driven, booming US economy. Corporate CEOs — eternally optimistic — mostly toed the same line. Finance leaders, however, appeared a bit more skeptical that the upswing has legs. Conversations in private were slightly different. At one high-level Chatham House-rule gathering, participants were nearly unanimous that Mark Carney’s Davos speech on the “rupture” in the world order is coming true, fast. Nobody is running away from America, but hedging has begun. Many attendees from China, meanwhile, were notably cool on the opportunity to bring Taiwan closer. Diverse speakers said the US has become the driver of global geopolitical uncertainty. Political scientist Ian Bremmer, who doesn’t seem to do self-censorship, said “there’s going to be a really rocky transition to get from an American-driven globalization.”

On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, Patrick Radden Keefe joins the show to talk about page-turning journalism, his own celebrity, and the humanity behind his work. Patrick discusses his new book, London Falling, how he finds stories that pull readers in, and the balance between mystery and resolution. He also touches on his unexpected celebrity, the shift from page to screen, and why real people and messy emotions make the best stories.

White House

• Customs and Border Protection will roll out the first phase of a tariff refund program on Monday. — NBC
• President Trump is expected to nominate Cameron Hamilton to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency; Hamilton was removed as acting head of FEMA last year after he defended its existence in a congressional hearing. — NBC
• The Trump Administration is working to make a version of Anthropic’s powerful new Mythos model available to federal agencies. — Bloomberg

Campaigns

• Vice President JD Vance has attended Republican National Committee breakfasts, lunches and dinners in recent months that are estimated to have raised more than $60 million. — NYT
• Artificial intelligence and crypto are emerging big spenders in the midterm elections. — Politico

Courts

• A former Tufts graduate student, who was arrested by immigration authorities for signing a pro-Palestinian op-ed in the student newspaper last year, self-deported under an agreement with the Trump administration. — Politico

Business

• Elon Musk endorsed a government-sponsored universal income for workers displaced by artificial intelligence, pinning the proposal to the top of his X page.

Media

• Caitlyn Jenner says President Trump has not replied to a letter she sent him asking for help after a White House policy took effect that requires her to identify as “male” on her passport.

World

• Right-wing leaders in Europe are distancing themselves from President Trump.

— Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at a House Education and Workforce Committee hearing defended spending taxpayer funds on a public service announcement in which he drinks a glass of milk, shirtless in a hot tub with Kid Rock.

Semafor DC Team

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant,Washington briefing editor

Brendan Ruberry, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel