Canada and the European Union Are in Love. Where Can It Lead?I spent last weekend crossing half the globe with Prime Minister Mark Carney, to spend a few hours with European leaders in Yerevan, the stunning Armenian capital, before crossing all the way back to Ottawa. Mr. Carney was the first non-European leader to be invited to a meeting of the European Political Community, a grouping that brings together the 27 European Union member states with allies and neighbors, including Britain and Turkey, as well as aspiring members such as Ukraine and Albania. This meeting happens twice a year, and it’s mostly a chance for the leaders to talk about pressing issues and harmonize their responses where they can. It plays a particularly significant role in coordinating Europe’s support to Ukraine. Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, was in Yerevan, and one of the few tangible things Mr. Carney announced was that Canada would contribute $270 million toward a NATO-coordinated program to provide urgently needed, U.S.-made weaponry to Ukraine.
But Mr. Carney was really there to spend face-to-face time with European Union leaders as he tries to advance Canada’s integration into the bloc’s industrial and other policies. Both in Canada and in the E.U., the idea of Canada becoming a 28th member state is popular in polls; and while it is clear that membership is not going to happen because Canada is not in Europe, Mr. Carney and European leaders seem to want to make Canada something of an honorary member. [Read: Mark Carney Pulls Canada Closer to Europe as Both Struggle With Trump] Before I started my role as Canada bureau chief in August 2024, I led The New York Times’s coverage of the European Union based in Brussels, so I have a particular interest in the budding love affair between my former and current beats. Here’s what I learned on the trip to Yerevan by speaking to the prime minister, as well as European officials. Holding Hands Amid ChaosEuropeans are feeling the changes in the leadership of the United States deeply. Europe has vital trading ties with the United States and, through NATO, a fundamental defense dependence on it. The changes President Trump is bringing to these areas are leaving E.U. leaders anxious and bewildered — emotions many Canadians recognize from their own experiences. E.U. leaders seem to want to hold Mr. Carney closer through this tumultuous phase. Several mentioned his now-famous Davos speech as a turning point in their own understanding of the changes U.S. policies mean for the rest of the world. Mr. Carney’s presence in Yerevan was part of his “middle power” doctrine first laid out in Davos: the idea that powers like Canada and the European Union’s members should come together to form a stabilizing force in global trade and foreign policy, amid the chaos created by the United States’ changing role in the world it once led. Mr. Carney played to his audience. “It’s my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe,” he said, a statement sure to flatter the hosts. Euro Speed Dating
In the 36 hours he spent in Yerevan, Mr. Carney met with a string of leaders in speed-dating fashion: He met with the top leaders of the three E.U. institutions and the heads of government of France, Spain, Italy and Ukraine. He also sat in a smaller group meeting about Ukraine, which included, among others, the British leader and Mr. Rutte of NATO. Mr. Carney seemed cognizant of criticisms back home about his frequent travel. During his news conference on Monday, he thanked us for traveling with him on a weekend and also stressed that the trip had been an efficient use of his time. On Tuesday morning he was back in his office to announce the appointment of the new governor general. [Read: For Canada’s Ceremonial Head of State, a Symbol of Rights and the Rule of Law] Reality CheckLike so many of Mr. Carney’s overseas efforts, the E.U. one was focused on boosting trade and securing financing deals. Canada and the European Union have a trade agreement that eliminates most tariffs but is yet to be ratified by 10 of the 27 E.U. countries. Last year Canada was the first non-E.U. country to join the bloc’s industrial defense policy initiative, which will allow Canadian businesses access to European Union contracts. The two sides have also launched what they are calling “a new strategic partnership,” which is meant to lead to closer collaboration across the board and boost trade flows (the E.U. is Canada’s second-largest trading partner when taken as a bloc). The Europeans are eager for Canadian oil and gas, but energy exports require additional pipelines. This is a missed opportunity, as the bloc faces an energy crunch because of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Mr. Carney, asked about the inability to immediately boost energy exports to Europe, tried to reframe the issue.
“When we sit down with Europeans, the first thing they raise is not energy,” he said. “Yes, energy is part of it. But the framing of this is that the discussions between Canada and Europe start with energy and, no, that’s just not the way it has been.” Apart from these limits to this relationship, it’s also important to note that the European Union is itself a complex and troubled beast. It faces a major challenge in the war in Ukraine, and is rushing to scale up its ability to defend itself as the United States withdraws. E.U. economies continue to grow in a lopsided, out-of-sync way despite their deep integration. Canada still stands to gain from coming closer to Europe, but that will not lessen the need to look to Asia, where Mr. Carney has already started important conversations, to reach his goals of doubling non-U.S. trade by the end of the decade. A special noteWe want to take a moment to congratulate our colleague Stephanie Nolen, who graces this newsletter with her insightful reporting from time to time, for being named a finalist in the international reporting category of the Pulitzer Prize this week. Stephanie, a distinguished Canadian journalist living in Nova Scotia, has been covering global health for The Times since 2021. She was honored for her work tracking the devastating impact felt across the world by the cuts to U.S. humanitarian aid. You can read her nominated stories here Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Canada bureau chief at The Times. She lives in Toronto. Trans Canada
This section was compiled by Shawna Richer, the Canada editor at The Times. How are we doing? Like this email?
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