Good morning. In focus today, we look at what Canada’s major-project push will require on the ground – and why Alberta separatism has become part of the investment conversation.

Separation trial: An Alberta judge has struck down a petition for an independence referendum in response to a legal challenge, ruling the government had a duty to consult with First Nations.

Deals: Equinox Gold Corp. is bidding to join the ranks of North America’s largest gold producers with an all-stock, $7-billion offer for Orla Mining Ltd.

Labour: The Bank of Canada says there is no clear evidence to date that artificial intelligence has led to widespread job losses, but further adoption of the technology could lead to permanent changes in the economy.

Alberta is leading Canada in real GDP growth. It has relatively low exposure to the U.S. trade war, the youngest population in Canada and a reasonable cost of living. It’s also emerging as an AI powerhouse.

But unstable oil prices are converging with higher unemployment and uncertainty over the future of energy infrastructure. In Calgary yesterday, The Globe brought together key decision-makers to coach the province and country through major projects, political divides and economic crises.

“Some of the projects that will define the next decade are taking shape right here,” Sven List, an executive with Export Development Canada, told an audience of business and political leaders to kick off the event.

A call to kill the carbon tax

The fate of some of those projects will depend on whether carbon pricing still exists on an industrial level, said Jon McKenzie, chief executive of Calgary-based energy company Cenovus Energy Inc.

The federal government’s carbon tax does nothing to induce the oil and gas sector to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, he said in the wake of a report by The Globe on Tuesday that Ottawa and Alberta are close to finalizing an accord on industrial carbon pricing that would see the fee rise to $130 a tonne by 2040.

Even with price levels that critics described as too far on the horizon to render meaningful carbon reduction, the price levels under discussion do not alter the “fundamental premise” of the issue facing industry, McKenzie said.

“Whether it’s $130 a tonne or $170 a tonne, there is no other jurisdiction that does this,” he said. “But the other piece that will be important is what is the stringency and the effectiveness of this over time. Does it continue to grow and become a bigger burden to us? Or is this something that is going to be pushed out into the future?”

A need for speed

Leaders of national projects said yesterday that political urgency will not be enough to get pipelines, ports, mines, power projects and trade corridors built.

The federal government’s Major Projects Office is meant to streamline reviews and align departments, provinces, territories, Indigenous partners and other stakeholders around national-interest projects.

But Susannah Pierce, former president and country chair of Shell Canada, said capital will flow only to projects that can offer returns, certainty and customers.

Execution depends on local support as much as political support, Pierce said – particularly in British Columbia, where many First Nations are not under treaty and proponents need to address rights and title questions from the start.

“It is the ground game,” she said. “It is getting community engagement right. It is about siting the project in such a way that you have buy-in from the communities, engagement [with] the First Nations right up front.”

Joe Dion, chief executive officer and director of the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group, said Indigenous equity can no longer be treated as a late-stage addition to pipelines, ports and other major projects.

Any new pipeline will require First Nations partnerships from the start, said Dion, whose group has been pursuing Indigenous ownership in the Trans Mountain pipeline system.

“They can’t own it without First Nations partnerships,” he said. “First Nations have to be at the helm.”

‘Any risk creates uncertainty’

There were no clear champions of Alberta separatism evident on stage yesterday, but the issue nevertheless entered all the chats.