Negotiations and threats, threats and negotiations. Markets are getting tired of the apparent lack of progress around the U.S.-Iran peace talks and that’s creating a risk of an eventual sharp jump in oil prices, which would roil bond and stock markets. 

After a largely negative day in U.S. stocks on Monday, there was limited relief when President Donald Trump said he would delay a planned attack on Iran. Although oil prices came off their highs, Trump’s warning that American forces are ready for an assault “on a moment’s notice” was hardly calculated to calm investors’ nerves. Crude prices have been lingering around $100 a barrel as the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route looked like it would remain blocked for the foreseeable future.

Oil prices have so far been kept in check by releases of strategic reserves, commercial inventories and even sanctioned Russian supplies—a waiver to purchase the latter having just been extended by the U.S. for the most vulnerable nations. But at some point those will run out. The International Energy Agency already forecasts average demand of 104 million barrels a day this year will outstrip supplies of around 102.2 million barrels. And that assumes a normalization of supplies from June. 

Even with the U.S.’s domestic supplies of energy, it can’t shrug off higher oil prices forever. Bond yields remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury at more than 4.6% in recent days. If conflict lingers through the summer, it could add a full percentage point to inflation this year, according to analysts at LPL Financial. Interest-rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve already look to be largely off the table, but the prospect of hikes would pressure the artificial-intelligence trade, which already looks fragile after heavy falls for chip stocks on Friday and Monday. 

After a period when oil prices—and therefore other assets—would respond to Trump’s every utterance, now the reaction is largely a shrug. The risks of a complete loss of faith in a peaceful resolution are rising.

—Adam Clark

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Billionaire Elon Musk was too late to file his lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, or so a California jury found, rejecting his claims against the artificial intelligence rival. Musk, the CEO of Tesla and owner of SpaceX and its xAI business, co-founded OpenAI. He vowed to appeal.

• Musk alleged that OpenAI, which was founded as a not-for-profit, “stole a charity” when it evolved into a for-profit company. He founded it in 2015 but stepped away in 2018 and later formed xAI. The nine-person jury cited the expiration of the statute of limitations for bringing claims.

• OpenAI didn’t reply to Barron’s request for comment. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it a huge win for Altman and OpenAI, removing a significant $134 billion overhang from Musk’s damage claims. OpenAI is expected to launch an initial public offering in the next year.

• The finding is also a win for Microsoft, which has invested more than $10 billion in OpenAI and was accused by Musk of aiding and abetting OpenAI’s charitable trust breakup. Other tech investors in OpenAI include Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia.

• As for Musk’s promise to appeal, there may not be much of a point. Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond, told Barron’s that despite Musk’s declaration, the case appears to be over. “It’s all fact specific, so I don’t think there’s any legal question there.” 

What’s Next: OpenAI now has freedom to pursue a public stock listing, as The Wall Street Journal points out. The AI firm has come through a number of challenges in the past year, including the rise of rival Anthropic and a renegotiated relationship with Microsoft.

—Anita Hamilton

House lawmakers could vote today on a bill designed to ease housing affordability, but it’s a watered-down version compared with the Senate’s bill because it strips out a requirement that institutional investors sell the houses they build to rent out within seven years. The requirement threatened to quash new construction.

• The 21st Century Road to Housing Act aims at affordability by reducing builder regulations and making it easier to develop factory-built homes. Investors like Blackstone and Invitation Homes most feared a ban on buying single-family homes to rent out, something long-sought by progressives including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.).

• Supporters of banning institutional investors argue that they unfairly compete against regular home-buyers, making it harder and more expensive to buy homes. Some investors in build-to-rent properties say that restricting their business means the homes won’t be built at all.

• The bill has bipartisan support. The Senate passed its own version of the bill earlier this year in a 89-10 vote. The Senate version not only keeps institutions from buying existing single-family homes, but has the seven-year time frame to sell the new ones they build to rent.

• The House version also closes a loophole highlighted by Barron’s that might have allowed investors to subvert the ban by creating a “homeownership boost” program meant to help renters buy the homes they’re leasing, including price concessions by investors.

What’s Next: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) and Trump have both said the House should pass the Senate’s version instead of its own. Having to reopen the bill in the Senate could mean running out of time to pass it this year.

—Joe Light and Janet H. Cho

Recent trade tensions have made investors more starkly aware of China’s monopoly on mining rare earth minerals. And the rise of physical AI applications such as humanoid robots promises to accelerate demand for the rare earth oxides used in everything from Apple iPhones to fighter jets.

• That setup has investors pouring billions into non-Chinese rare earth projects. Sifting through technical mining industry reports, which detail mine specs, isn’t easy for a mining engineer, but can help investors understand what upstarts are up against.

• Four mines currently matter worldwide: The Bayan Obo mine in China’s Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region is the largest; the Maoniuping mine in China’s southwestern Sichuan province; the Lynas Rare Earths Mount Weld mine in Western Australia; and MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine, 50 miles from Las Vegas.

• Rare earth oxides are processed into metals, used to make products such as rare-earth magnets for electric motors and other applications. Global rare-earth oxide production totaled about 390,000 metric tons in 2025, up from about 124,000 a decade earlier.

• Prices for rare earth materials have risen sharply because of demand and the U.S. government’s efforts to secure non-Chinese supply. The Defense Department in July signed a deal with MP Materials that included a $110-per-kilogram price floor for Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, up from $50 previously.

What’s Next: It’s critical to the tech industry achieving its ambitions. Take the desire to escalate production of humanoid robots. Producing millions of robots a year is going to require rare earth mining capabilities, the equivalent of three to 28 new Mount Welds, says Rare Earths America CEO Donald Swartz.

—Al Root and Janet H. Cho

EchoStar emerged as one of the leading plays on SpaceX since the company got a 2%-plus stake in Elon Musk’s company in return for some of EchoStar’s spectrum. There could be more upside for investors given SpaceX’s IPO is looming, with a filing expected as early as this week.

• The IPO could value SpaceX at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, making it one of the more valuable companies in the world. The deal could be priced by the end of June. EchoStar’s stock has doubled since its spectrum deal last September, and TD Cowen analyst sees it going even higher.

• Barron’s estimates EchoStar holds about 525 million SpaceX shares. It sold the spectrum for $11.1 billion of SpaceX stock valued at $212 a share. SpaceX then was valued at $450 billion assuming more than two billion shares outstanding. The SpaceX share count has risen with its purchase of xAI.

• There is limited Wall Street coverage of EchoStar because some analysts work for firms involved in the SpaceX IPO and aren’t publishing reports until after the offering is priced. TD’s Williams valued EchoStar at $155 a share on a sum-of-the-parts basis, but his assumptions appear conservative.

• Williams is assuming a $1.75 trillion valuation for SpaceX and is reducing the value of the EchoStar stake for taxes. He’s also assigning a 10% discount to all of EchoStar’s assets in his sum-of-the-parts model—reflecting a conglomerate-type discount. Williams values EchoStar’s SpaceX equity stake at around $31 billion. 

What’s Next: EchoStar CEO Charlie Ergen hasn’t said a lot about the SpaceX stake lately. The company didn’t hold a conference call after first quarter earnings. In November, Ergen praised Musk and SpaceX and said he was happy with the SpaceX deal, calling the equity an “excellent investment.”

—Andrew Bary

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner