One of these days, we might get an Iran ceasefire that actually involves a cessation of fire. Not yet, though: Iran warned this morning it will respond to last night’s U.S. attacks—which CENTCOM described as “self-defense strikes”—in southern Iran. “The nations and lands of the region,” Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement, “will no longer serve as shields for American bases.” That peace deal is apparently all but worked out, though! Happy Tuesday.

Join Bill and Andrew for Morning Shots Live on Substack and YouTube at 10 a.m. EDT.

Trump’s War Ends With a Whimper

by William Kristol

Whoa. This past weekend, as the outlines of Donald Trump’s Iran deal became clear, not one, not two, but three Republican senators were so appalled that they did something heretofore unimaginable in the era of Trump: They told the truth.

On Friday, Senate Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker had warned that President Trump was “being ill advised to pursue a deal that would not be worth the paper it is written on. Further pursuit of an agreement with Iran’s Islamist regime risks a perception of weakness.” On Saturday, Wicker followed up: The rumored deal “would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”

Later that day Sen. Ted Cruz joined in voicing his alarm:

I am deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an Iran “deal,” being pushed by some voices in the administration. President Trump’s decision to strike Iran was the most consequential decision of his second term. . . . If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant “death to America”—now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.

Even Trump’s lickspittle extraordinaire, Sen. Lindsay Graham, weighed in:

If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate [sic] force requiring a diplomatic solution.

This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability to inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.

Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate.

Needless to say, this brief spasm of Republican truth-telling will likely prove . . . a brief spasm. Since Saturday, Wicker and Cruz seem to have fallen silent. Graham, for his part, has already reversed course. By yesterday he had fully entered fantasy-land in order to be back in Trump’s good graces:

President Trump’s most recent proposal requiring expansion of the Abraham Accords as part of a negotiated settlement to the Iran conflict is simply brilliant and would result in the most significant change in the Middle East in thousands of years.

With Saudi Arabia and others like Pakistan making peace with Israel, the region will know a level of stability never dreamed of before President Trump and will eventually lead to regional integration making the Middle East a powerhouse for economic opportunity and good instead of a powder keg.

Still, even as the truth-telling subsides, the question Graham posed will linger: “It makes one wonder why the war started to begin with.” And the answer will be hard to evade: The war started because Trump and his administration are foolish and reckless and hubristic, and those in a position to check him—like Sens. Wicker and Cruz and Graham—have utterly failed to do so.