After President Trump’s weekend talk of an agreement with Iran, the past 36 hours have seen a flurry of military activity in the Middle East. On Monday, the United States launched a series of “self-defense” strikes on sites in southern Iran, sinking two boats that were laying mines. The move prompted Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to vow retaliation for what it called a “grave violation” of the ceasefire in a war now nearing its fourth month. And all of this is only the latest twist in a conflict that seems to change shape with every passing moment—often because of a social media post by the president himself.

What are we to make of it all? To bring clarity on where the war is—and what to expect next—we turn to historian and Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson. —The Editors

Like all our fellow citizens, Rieux . . . was torn between conflicting fears and confidence. When a war breaks out, people say, “It’s too stupid; it can’t last long.” But though a war may be “too stupid,” that doesn’t prevent it lasting. Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves. —Albert Camus, The Plague, part I, chapter 5

Since February 28, we have experienced the geopolitical equivalent of a roller-coaster ride on magic mushrooms. We hurtled from Operation Epic Fury to Operation Economic Fury to Project Freedom to no fury at all, and not much freedom of navigation either. We sped from the impending obliteration of Iranian civilization to “a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE . . . largely negotiated, subject to finalization.” If you have not experienced the psychological equivalent of whiplash in the last 12 weeks, you have not been paying attention. How many nearly-peace nearly-deals have we nearly had? Four? Five?

On Sunday, there was once again media speculation that a deal to end the war was close to being done. According to Barak Ravid of Axios, quoting an unnamed “U.S. official,” Donald Trump’s nearly-but-not-quite-finalized, still-could-fall-apart draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) had seven key elements:...