![]() Niall Ferguson: The Endless Almost-Deal in Iran Since February 28, we have experienced the geopolitical equivalent of a roller-coaster ride on magic mushrooms.
“The most conventional thing Donald Trump has done in his entire life has been to go to war in the Middle East,” writes Niall Ferguson. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
After President Trump’s weekend talk of an agreement with Iran, the past 36 hours have seen a flurry of military activity in the Middle East. On Monday, the United States launched a series of “self-defense” strikes on sites in southern Iran, sinking two boats that were laying mines. The move prompted Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to vow retaliation for what it called a “grave violation” of the ceasefire in a war now nearing its fourth month. And all of this is only the latest twist in a conflict that seems to change shape with every passing moment—often because of a social media post by the president himself. What are we to make of it all? To bring clarity on where the war is—and what to expect next—we turn to historian and Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson. —The Editors
This article is featured in International. Sign up here to get an update every time a new piece is published. Since February 28, we have experienced the geopolitical equivalent of a roller-coaster ride on magic mushrooms. We hurtled from Operation Epic Fury to Operation Economic Fury to Project Freedom to no fury at all, and not much freedom of navigation either. We sped from the impending obliteration of Iranian civilization to “a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE . . . largely negotiated, subject to finalization.” If you have not experienced the psychological equivalent of whiplash in the last 12 weeks, you have not been paying attention. How many nearly-peace nearly-deals have we nearly had? Four? Five? On Sunday, there was once again media speculation that a deal to end the war was close to being done. According to Barak Ravid of Axios, quoting an unnamed “U.S. official,” Donald Trump’s nearly-but-not-quite-finalized, still-could-fall-apart draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) had seven key elements:...
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