Washington, DC

1. Schumer’s majority plan
2. CFTC chair speaks
3. Trump’s 3.0 ask unlikely
4. Clayton vs. Pulte
5. SpaceX IPO takes flight
6. Sudan sanctions momentum

PDB: Iran says still undecided after Trump touts peace deal

Surveillance powers to lapse … NYT: US to pull a third of NATO fighter jets from Europe … US faces Paraguay in LA-area World Cup match

Schumer vs. Collins, the rematch

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is still intensely focused on ousting Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, despite divisions in his caucus over her opponent, Graham Platner, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports off a new interview with Schumer. “We’re going to beat Susan Collins and take back the majority,” Schumer said, ticking off three reasons why he thinks Collins will lose: Medicaid cuts hitting Maine, her handling of President Donald Trump, and resentment over the end of Roe v. Wade. Collins told Semafor separately she’s seen this before — and won: “We heard the same song six years ago, exactly.” And she praised the Democrats who aren’t backing Platner: “That shows discernment, integrity, and wisdom on their part.” Schumer made sure to widen his path to the majority to six seats, and offered up a new catchphrase about Trump’s second midterm: “Costs, chaos and corruption.”

CFTC’s Selig on SCOTUS ruling

The Wall Street regulator overseeing prediction markets is so confident in his effort to box out states and tribes that he would “welcome” a Supreme Court ruling on the issue, he told Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller. “A Supreme Court ruling on this really will settle the matter — but Congress did so when it drafted our statute,” Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig said in an interview yesterday. “Congress can change it if there are concerns.” Selig, serving alone atop the five-person bipartisan commission after crypto billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss spoke out against Trump’s initial pick, floated new rules for prediction markets this week. He spoke to Semafor about that effort, as well as prediction market litigation, pending legislation on the betting platforms, commissioner vacancies, cryptocurrency products, and more.

Trump’s reconciliation 3.0 ask not landing

Trump’s demand for a third party-line spending bill — including $350 billion for defense spending and voter ID requirements — isn’t landing on Capitol Hill. “A 3.0 is not something that I see in the cards,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, told Semafor. “If the vote were right now, I’d say I don’t know where you’re going to be able to find” 50 votes. She added that it’s a “dangerous strategy” for the Trump administration to count on defense funding through the budget reconciliation process. Senate Majority Leader John Thune was noncommittal yesterday, saying it depends on whether there are 50 votes for anything. Collins and Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., both openly doubted another party-line spending bill earlier this week. An administration official pointed to Trump’s Wednesday post, in which he said Congress needs to pass the third party-line package “ASAP.”

— Burgess Everett

Clayton draws contrast with Pulte

Jay Clayton, Trump’s nominee for permanent director of national intelligence, is a sharp contrast to Bill Pulte, his first chosen replacement. Where Pulte’s aggressive style has earned him detractors across the Trump administration, Clayton — a longtime Wall Street lawyer who ran the Securities and Exchange Commission in Trump’s first term — is an establishment pick familiar to, and on friendly terms with, much of Washington. As US attorney for the Southern District of New York, he tracked Trump priorities by cracking down on violent crime and decrying antisemitism on campuses. He had wanted to be considered for CIA director, Semafor previously reported, before taking his current seat, made powerful by its role policing financial crimes. Schumer initially blocked his appointment, however, and he shed interim status after a vote of Southern District judges.

— Liz Hoffman

View: AI revives the conglomerate

This week’s IPO of SpaceX isn’t just about growing the rocket and satellite company. It’s about Elon Musk consolidating his empire: He’s already merged X and xAI into the rocket and satellite company, and is expected to add Tesla once SpaceX has a stock to use as currency. (You can’t buy a $1.4 trillion company for cash.) When I spoke this week to Jeff Bezos about Prometheus, his “physical AI” lab, it was clear he’s heading in this direction, too. He wouldn’t discuss its arguably more ambitious second act — which, from what I understand, sounds a lot like an AI-powered Berkshire Hathaway. Two of the most ambitious people alive are building the same thing: a holding company glued together by AI. Big Tech has been moving in this direction for decades.

Congress moves to sanction Sudan

Congress is moving to put more pressure on Sudan’s warring factions, as the three-year war perpetuates one of the globe’s worst humanitarian crises, Semafor’s Adrian Elimian reports. The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced legislation on Tuesday to authorize sanctions on the parties involved in the war, while the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee led a group in introducing similar legislation a day later. Both proposals have bipartisan support. Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, who leads the Foreign Relations Committee, said the panel would consider his bill next week. “The efforts of both the Senate and House this month reflect the urgency of addressing the crisis in Sudan,” he said, noting that the Senate is engaging with the House on the issue. The effort comes as the conflict shows no sign of abating.

Debatable: Government stakes in AI

The idea of the federal government exacting a public benefit from big AI companies has support from both Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. The progressive senator is working on legislation that would hand the public a direct ownership stake in AI companies by charging them a one-time 50% tax paid in stock. Trump has signaled interest in a similar concept — after taking equity stakes in other security-adjacent companies. But the idea faces plenty of skepticism on Capitol Hill for a variety of reasons. “What I don’t want to do is get stuck with one company or two companies that we’ve got a vested interest in, and then find out that there’s a better company out there,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said he doesn’t like the idea of “big government owning Big Tech.”

Eli Pariser coined the term “filter bubble.” Now, he thinks AI is about to change how you start your day. On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, New_Public co-director Eli Pariser joins Max and Ben to talk about how soon your morning routine will change, which platforms are most exposed to AI disruption, and whether centralizing everyone’s attention was actually a mistake.

Beltway Newsletters

Axios: “The UFC and President Trump have forged one of the most successful cultural alliances in modern politics, carrying mixed martial arts (MMA) from the fringe of American sports to a starring role in the country’s 250th anniversary.”

Punchbowl News: “It would have been nice if we had had this a couple of days earlier,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said of Trump’s decision to nominate Jay Clayton for director of national intelligence. “But you play the hand you’re dealt.”

Playbook: Clayton was chosen, in part, to “quell all the bitching,” according to one Trump administration official.

White House

• An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman appeared to dispute President Trump’s claim that the countries had made a peace settlement, saying Tehran was undecided; meanwhile, Iranian state media published what it said was a draft of the agreement that included negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, and the ending of Israel’s war in Lebanon, AFP reported.
• Trump has discussed having Republican lawmakers pass a resolution symbolically voiding his prior impeachments. — WSJ
• Justice Department and White House insiders say Trump’s “anti-weaponization fund” is still in the works and are looking for ways to compensate Trump loyalists. — The Atlantic
• Federal agencies have been stonewalling the Government Accountability Office since Trump’s second term began. — NOTUS

Outside the Beltway

• At least five states — Connecticut, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon — have declined to participate in the Great American State Fair festivities in the capital for the country’s semiquincentennial. — NYT

Campaigns

• Hunter Biden defended Democratic Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, under fresh scrutiny for his reported conduct with former girlfriends, during a forthcoming podcast episode with California Gov. Gavin Newsom. — Politico
• The Congressional Hispanic Caucus is spending heavily on behalf of Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., who faces a primary challenger to his left. — Axios
• President Trump threatened to retaliate against Washington if the district elects democratic socialist Janeese Lewis George as mayor.