Africa

1. Developing Ebola vaccines
2. US defends Ebola response
3. World Cup travel restrictions
4. Dangote IPO sparks interest
5. Amazon in satellite push
6. Sudan sanction calls grow
7. UAE ‘harbors conflict gold’

Weekend Reads and Cabo Verde’s World Cup fairytale.

The Ebola outbreak unfolding in Central Africa is the 17th to hit the country since the virus was discovered in 1976 — but it’s the first since the artificial intelligence boom, and the technology is already showing its potential value.

The biggest challenge posed by the latest outbreak is the lack of a vaccine. But there are many others: The epidemic cuts across a conflict zone and mining hub that sit beside porous borders. AI is helping epidemiologists make data-driven comparisons with previous outbreaks. Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, told me that AI tools are being used to identify “where the cases are actually occurring and how that maps to different conflict areas,” which is crucial in a region where contact tracers could be at risk from armed groups.

Much has been written about AI tools making it easier to create biological weapons, but their use in the fight against Ebola points to their value in combating public health emergencies. In March, the World Health Organization’s regional office in Africa announced the launch of an AI-driven early warning system for health threats. As well as compiling a risk profile of an area, the WHO said the platform includes a chatbot for health officials to question data in plain language.

Of course, AI isn’t a silver bullet and there are many potential pitfalls. The danger of hallucinations means health officials must tread with caution, given the outsized impact that errors could have in the response to a public emergency. Use of the technology also raises potential privacy issues about the type of personal health data recorded and how the information is used.

But AI does offer a cost-effective tool to augment healthcare across the continent in a way that could cushion the blow of deep cuts to Western aid budgets, and the closure of USAID in particular. That’s true of epidemics, but also applies to the day-to-day management of government-run health services.

The technology is still in its infancy — “we’re kind of learning in real time,” Hatchett confessed — but it offers genuine hope.

Scientists race to create Ebola vaccines

Scientists are racing to develop four Ebola vaccines to tackle the outbreak in DR Congo, including two which could be ready for clinical trials in two months, the head of a global vaccine coalition told Semafor. More than 500 cases of the Bundibugyo strain, for which there is no proven vaccine, have been reported in the outbreak, which is concentrated in eastern DR Congo. 

Two of the experimental vaccines — one being developed by Oxford University scientists, and another by Moderna — harness technology used to create vaccines for COVID-19 and could be in trials by the end of August, said Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. Still, Hatchett cautioned, even if a vaccine performed well in clinical trials, it would take at least two more months to move to further trials and regulatory approval.

Emanuele Capobianco at global vaccine alliance GAVI, meanwhile, said a proven vaccine would be a “game changer,” but warned in an interview that it was likely “to take several months, potentially years” to end the outbreak. He compared it to a 2018 Ebola epidemic in eastern DR Congo which lasted two years, despite there being a vaccine. Health experts say the disease is likely to have circulated, undetected, for weeks in the northeastern Ituri province, where artisanal mining is an economic mainstay.

US says its Ebola response beats China’s

The US response to the Ebola crisis in Africa has been better than China’s, an internal State Department memo reviewed by Semafor argued. The June 5 document states that the US “has become the single largest financial contributor to the Ebola response effort,” while China “only recently pledged assistance after previously issuing precautionary measures and general statements of intent.” It also asserts that the Chinese narrative “wrongly points out that they are on the ground when the United States is not.” Experts have criticized the US response to the crisis, particularly in the context of USAID cuts under President Donald Trump: The New York Times recently ran a story suggesting China could fill a void left by the US, while the South China Morning Post quoted experts saying Beijing already had done so.

World Cup travel restrictions criticized

DR Congo’s sports minister said US Ebola travel restrictions were going “too far,” after they delayed his entry and disrupted the country’s first World Cup campaign in 52 years. Didier Budimbu told Semafor he was waiting in Europe to complete a 21-day quarantine before entering the US, while 11 members of the team’s technical staff underwent the same process before receiving visas in Belgium.

“We have to comply with the laws of the countries hosting us,” Budimbu said, while noting that Kinshasa is more than 2,000 kilometers from the outbreak zone in eastern DR Congo and has recorded no Ebola cases.

The restrictions have forced changes to the team’s preparations, including canceling a planned training camp in Kinshasa. DR Congo’s squad arrived in Houston from a European training base this week and was welcomed by US CDC officials.

— Ruben Nyanguila

Dangote IPO set to be Africa’s largest

Anticipation is growing for Africa’s largest-ever initial public offering by Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, with the continent’s financial services giants and retail investors gearing up to get a piece of the action.

The company wants to raise $5 billion in its debut on Nigeria’s stock exchange by September, which would value the oil refinery at $50 billion, according to reports. But the offer is currently being preceded by a push to raise $1 billion in debt from international investors, as well as a separate private sale of $1 billion worth of shares to high-net worth individuals and corporations.

“We held an investor meet and greet in Ghana, and everyone’s interest was finding out how to participate in the Dangote IPO,” Richard Bassey, CEO of Bamboo, a Nigerian broker that operates a stock trading app with 1.7 million users, told Semafor.

Amazon takes on Starlink in Kenya

Amazon has applied for approval to build its first African satellite ground station in Kenya, putting it in competition with SpaceX as governments across the continent tighten their control over fast-growing satellite internet services.

For global operators, Africa’s youthful population and patchy broadband networks offer a mix of scale and unmet demand.

Amazon’s application lands at a time when SpaceX’s Starlink — the most widely used satellite internet service in Africa — is running into regulatory delays. Namibia and South Africa have prevented Starlink from entering their telecoms markets, enforcing local ownership rules that have become a point of contention for multinational firms operating in Africa. SpaceX is due to make its $75 billion stock market debut on Friday, potentially sharpening investor focus on regulatory approvals in Africa’s biggest markets.

— Tiisetso Motsoeneng

US builds momentum on Sudan sanctions

The US Congress is stepping up pressure on Sudan’s warring factions as the country contends with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced bipartisan legislation on Tuesday authorizing sanctions on parties to the war, while Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch introduced a similar bipartisan bill a day later and said his panel could take it up next week.

The House measure passed 34-5 after minor amendments. Supporters say it would strengthen the Trump administration’s leverage in negotiations with both sides by requiring an assessment of actors blocking aid deliveries, extending authorization for the vacant Special Envoy to Sudan post, and directing the State Department to impose sanctions on the Rapid Support Forces.

— Adrian Elimian

Dubai is CAR’s ‘conflict gold hub’

The United Arab Emirates has become the main destination for conflict minerals from the Central African Republic, placing Dubai at the center of a lucrative trade in gold and diamonds tied to armed groups and foreign smuggling networks, according to a new investigation.

Almost all of CAR’s officially declared gold exports since 2023 have been destined for the UAE, the investigation found — a pattern which echoes UN findings in Sudan, where Dubai-based networks have been linked to gold flows financing the Rapid Support Forces. The latest report, from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, also traced how Russia and Rwanda have established economic and security footholds in CAR alongside UAE trading networks. At the center is Russia’s Africa Corps, formerly Wagner Group — a mercenary network that has propped up President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s government since 2018. The report identifies the group as a major beneficiary of illicit gold, worth an estimated $180 million per year.

— Yinka Adegoke