Washington, DC

1. Iran deal done
2. Oil falls on Strait opening
3. Trump-Rand Paul thaw
4. FISA problems mount
5. G7 a test for Trump
6. Treasury’s tax war
7. Behind Anthropic limits
8. Inside Nord Stream saga

PDB: Trump backs Collins in Georgia Senate race

Trump celebrates 80th birthday with UFC fight … Trump threatens 100% tariffs on French wines over digital tax … UK bans social media for under-16s

Trump looks to move past Iran war

President Donald Trump may finally be on the way to putting the Iran war behind him, after announcing yesterday that a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is “complete.” The deal, according to Pakistan’s prime minister, is slated to be signed on Friday; the ceremony will be attended by Vice President JD Vance, or perhaps Trump himself. Trump quickly touted the agreement as a win for the US, posting on Truth Social that he is authorizing “the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” and removing the US blockade, but Senate ally Lindsey Graham warned that “Iran’s view of the agreement seems different.” Questions about key details remain, however. Last week, a senior Trump administration official indicated that concrete steps to ensure Iran won’t obtain a nuclear weapon would be worked out later. That could prompt criticism from Republican hawks.

— Shelby Talcott

Caution over US-Iran deal

Oil prices plummeted and shares surged after Washington and Tehran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though analysts voiced caution over the agreement’s prospects. Brent crude fell more than 5% to below $80 a barrel after Trump said ships would be able to traverse the waterway within days, writing on Truth Social “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” sending benchmark Asian stock market indexes up about 5%. However, analysts were circumspect, with Commerzbank’s chief economist writing in a note to clients that he anticipated “occasional setbacks,” and a prominent DC expert describing the agreement as “perhaps, the end of the beginning.” An executive told the Financial Times he was “pessimistic” about the prospects for any deal, with the outlet noting clearing the strait’s oil-and-gas backlog could take weeks.

Rand Paul improves standing with Trump

Trump and Rand Paul’s chilly relationship is thawing out, potentially boosting both of them over the coming months and years, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The Kentucky Republican senator was at odds with Trump on several major issues, from the tax-cut law to the confirmation of Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security secretary to the Iran war and US air strikes off the Venezuela coast. That dynamic has flipped in recent weeks, with Trump praising Paul’s leadership on immigration enforcement and the senator boosting Trump’s diplomatic efforts. That could help Paul avoid the fate of Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., if he runs for reelection — and aid Trump in the Senate during the back half of his second term. Paul isn’t ruling out running for president, either: “We’re going to look at that after the election.”

Trump undercuts GOP surveillance push

Trump is complicating Republicans’ messaging on the expiration of a law authorizing warrantless surveillance under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, declaring yesterday that if a bill requiring voter ID is not attached to its renewal, then he’s “against FISA.” That bill, the SAVE America Act, lacks the 60 votes needed in the Senate, and Trump’s message clashes with Republican leaders who argue a clean FISA extension is needed for national security. Trump is also showing no interest in replacing Bill Pulte as the incoming acting director of national intelligence, which prompted Democrats to block the FISA extension. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said he hopes Jay Clayton, Trump’s nominee for the permanent role, can be confirmed this week, which would put him in the position before Pulte takes over. Republicans may also be one vote down this week: Sen. Mitch McConnell was hospitalized this weekend.

— Burgess Everett

Trump revisits tense relationships at G7

Trump’s often contentious relationships with G7 leaders will face new tests this week as he heads to France for the group’s annual summit. Trump will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron later today after landing in Évian-les-Bains and dine with him at Versailles before leaving Wednesday. Despite Trump’s tensions with Macron and other attendees, the leaders still pushed back the summit so Trump could attend last night’s UFC fight — and are hoping he won’t leave early like last time. “The recipe for this summit, as with every summit involving Trump, is not to have a blowup, and to suggest that everything is OK, which none of them believe anymore,” one expert told The New York Times. Trump will meet individually with the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, and India, plus Ukraine; he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about Russia peace talks on Sunday night.

Treasury defends offshore tax havens

The Treasury Department is mounting a defense of last year’s decision to exempt US companies from a global minimum tax ahead of this week’s G7 meeting. After The New York Times reported that the decision had so far enabled US companies to avoid some $40 billion in taxes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Tax Affairs Rebecca Burch pushed back Saturday night by telling the New York State Bar Association that “articles on financial reporting make conclusions that do not represent the full picture,” according to excerpts shared with Semafor. The decision was “a coexistence mechanism, not repeal of a US obligation,” since “Congress never enacted” the tax, Burch added. “The rationale … was not simply ‘we want havens,’ the issues were US sovereignty, compliance burden and foreign [tax] application to US-parented groups already subject to US minimum-tax systems.”

— Eleanor Mueller

China concerns behind Anthropic limits

The White House imposed export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos AI model partly over suspicions that a China-linked group had accessed it, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti scooped. The Trump administration on Friday directed Anthropic to limit access to Mythos and its consumer version, known as Fable 5, to US citizens. That meant that even Anthropic employees who are foreign nationals can’t use the models. Anthropic chose to remove the models from the market completely. It’s unclear how the White House learned of the issue, which organization accessed the model, or how it gained access to Mythos. But if the Chinese government had access to the model, it could pose national security risks to the US. China could also attempt to reverse-engineer and copy the model in a process known as distillation. Anthropic executives quickly flew to Washington over the weekend to discuss the issue, Axios reported.

View: DC and the Nord Stream saga

After someone blew a hole in the Nord Stream Pipeline under the Baltic Sea in September 2022, the global media debated a geopolitical whodunnit. The American media, bolstered by statements from unnamed officials, suggested Russia was behind the attack. Russia, meanwhile, blamed the CIA. The actual attackers were “overjoyed by the proliferation of fake news,” reveals The Wall Street Journal’s chief European political correspondent Bojan Pancevski in his new book, The Nord Stream Conspiracy. The fingers pointed at Moscow and Washington meant “the Russians were less likely to send assassins after us,” the former general in the Ukrainian intelligence service who oversaw the operation told Pancevski. The episode is a useful glimpse at the world’s disorienting fog of war in a broken information environment — and the truth turns out to have been crazier than anyone could have guessed.

Blindspot: Lawsuits and tapes

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’ brother signed on to a lawsuit against the city over the Palisades fire.

What the Right isn’t reading: White House officials think New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan have recordings of Situation Room meetings as part of their reporting for their forthcoming book, Regime Change, Axios reported.

As companies confront declining engagement, rapid technological change, and growing political and regulatory pressures, leaders are reassessing the foundations of performance, trust, and long-term success.

On July 22 in Washington, DC, Semafor will convene The World of Work to examine how executives are navigating workforce transformation, economic volatility, and the evolving demands of leadership.

Through on-the-record conversations, Semafor editors will engage business leaders, policymakers, and innovators, including Katy George, Corporate Vice President, Workforce Transformation, Microsoft; Claire MacIntyre, Chief People Officer, Sam’s Club; Amanda Carroll, Co-Managing Director, Gensler; and more to explore how AI adoption, changing employee priorities, and a shifting business landscape are redefining the future of work.

July 22 | Washington, DC | Request Invite