Good morning. The world’s attention is on the Middle East.
What could go wrong?The United States and Iran have signed a framework agreement for peace after three and a half months of hostilities. And yesterday, fighting in Lebanon, where Israel has been pounding Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, did in fact ease. The price of oil fell. Ordinary Iranians breathed a cautious sigh of relief. So did others all over the world. Maybe after thousands of deaths and the bludgeoning of the world’s economy, this conflict could be coming to an end? If it is ending, it will be without any of the results President Trump was looking for when he started it: the destruction of Iran’s ability to wage war; the crushing of its nuclear ambitions; the end of its theocratic leadership; and the liberation of its people. Accordingly, the two sides will work out the details of this deal against a backdrop of real wariness. The terms of the framework remain a secret. All we really know is that the countries and their representatives have agreed to take the next 60 days to negotiate a final deal over long-term limits on Iran’s nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions against it. Will that actually happen? Or will it all fall apart? My colleague Lara Jakes, who covers conflict and diplomacy, laid out the possibilities. She sees six of them. Why the deal might succeedEveryone wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping. Iranian attacks on ships in the waterway, along with a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, have effectively choked off this vital artery for so much of the world’s oil and gas. Energy prices have soared, and the global economy has suffered. An open strait would allow for eventual relief. And lower gas prices in the United States could prove a political boon for Trump as the midterm elections approach.
Everyone’s stretched thin militarily. The Pentagon has put a lot of ships and troops in and around the Persian Gulf, potentially leaving the United States on the back foot in other parts of the world. That’s particularly true in Europe, where NATO continues to help Ukraine fight Russia, and in Taiwan and South Korea, which are concerned about China. And while U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran retains more ordnance than expected, Tehran has still launched more than 1,500 missiles and nearly 5,000 drones since the start of the war. It’s not as if those weapons grow on trees. And Trump really, really wants the win. He campaigned on a platform of “America First” and a cessation of inflation. Now his approval ratings have gone to new lows and some in his party have broken with him in advance of the midterms. Trump wants to declare victory here and move on. Why the deal might not succeed
Israel wants to keep fighting in Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu helped push Trump toward war in February. But Israel has not been involved in U.S. negotiations with Iran and, indeed, kept striking Hezbollah over the weekend, endangering the talks. Both Iran and Pakistan, which has been an important mediator, say that the agreement demands an end to military operations everywhere in the region, including Lebanon. But Netanyahu said yesterday that he has no intention of withdrawing his forces. Sanctions and frozen assets. Trump has lashed out at Barack Obama for years for the agreement his administration reached with Iran in 2015, which gave Tehran financial relief in exchange for reductions in its nuclear program. Trump pulled out of that deal in his first term, and he does not want to return to it now. Iran, of course, wants financial sanctions against it eased. It also wants access to billions of dollars in assets frozen in foreign banks. That’ll be quite the discussion. The nuclear program. Trump was abundantly clear that he took the United States to war to make sure that Iran would never, ever develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran contends that its ambitions are to develop nuclear power only for civilian use, and that it has a right to do so under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. There’s a huge delta between those two arguments. Quarreling over a compromise could derail even the best-laid plans. More on the deal
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