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Hey guys, it’s Sarah. This week is the four-year anniversary of Dobbs, which overturned Roe and flipped the 2022 midterms upside down.
So today I want to bring you some focus group insights on what I’ve been hearing from swing voters about how they’re thinking about abortion today. With Iran, AI, and a dumpster-fire economy, it’s not an issue that many national pundits are talking about—but it should be.
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Our members underwrite everything we do, and help us keep bringing this kind of under-the-hood analysis straight to you. Not to mention, they form the backbone of this pro-democracy community we’re building.
Hope you enjoy. See you in the comments.
—Sarah
Swing Voters Are Still Mad at Republicans About Abortion
In tight elections, that might make all the difference.
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AMID ALL THE TALK OF INFLATION, war, and artificial intelligence, people are underestimating just how important abortion could still be to this fall’s elections.
That seems like an insane sentence to type because, after all, abortion proved decisive in 2022, when Democrats dramatically overperformed expectations. The consensus quickly formed that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade was the key contributor.
But when the Democratic party put a heavy emphasis on abortion in the 2024 elections, it didn’t pan out. That’s because voters were more motivated by economic issues. Fights around abortion moved to the states—where Republican controlled legislatures were passing sweeping bans—and receded from the federal level.
Today, Dems may have over-learned the lesson of 2024.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard voters—even swing voters and conservatives—say some version of “I’m pro-life, but I believe in a woman’s right to choose.” Translation: Voters can be personally uncomfortable with abortion and still believe that the state-level bans are a bridge too far.
In recent focus groups I’ve conducted, abortion still pops up as an issue. That’s especially true in states with very restrictive abortion bans—including some that have key Senate and gubernatorial races this year, like...
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