Here’s a question: If you’re an investor who wants exposure to Elon Musk, is SpaceX or Tesla a better bet? Today, the answer seemed to be Tesla, with shares in the electric automaker climbing 1% to $405.05 as SpaceX shares tumbled 16% to $154.60. SpaceX shares are still above their IPO price of $135 per share, but today was their third consecutive trading day of decline. Some of the drop might be typical post-IPO comedown. Plus, SpaceX just highlighted the money-hungry nature of its business by kicking off a big post-debut debt offering. Investors could also see Tesla as a cheaper way to get in on a future combined Musk empire, if you buy the idea—increasingly popular in some circles—that it could eventually merge with SpaceX.
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Here’s a question: If you’re an investor who wants exposure to Elon Musk, is SpaceX or Tesla a better bet?
Today, the answer seemed to be Tesla, with shares in the electric automaker climbing 1%to $405.05 as SpaceX shares tumbled 16% to $154.60. SpaceX shares are still above their IPO price of $135 per share, but today was their third consecutive trading day of decline.
Some of the drop might be typical post-IPO comedown. Plus, SpaceX just highlighted the money-hungry nature of its business by kicking off a big post-debut debt offering. Investors could also see Tesla as a cheaper way to get in on a future combined Musk empire, if you buy the idea—increasingly popular in some circles—that it could eventually merge with SpaceX.
Both companies benefit from gigantic Musk premiums that give them much higher multiples than peers in their respective industries, but SpaceX’s valuation is in a totally different orbit. SpaceX trades at more than 100 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, compared to Tesla’s roughly 14 times premium on $95 billion in revenue.
SpaceX bulls say they’re buying into Musk’s expansive vision for the company, comprised of data centers orbiting Earth and gigantic settlements on the moon and Mars. But it’s not like Musk’s vision for Tesla is any less messianic—late last year, he was promising that the company’s Optimus robot will “eliminate poverty,” make working “optional” and give every human “amazing medical care.”
Hype aside, there’s probably a limited time to take advantage of any arbitrage opportunity between SpaceX and Tesla. After all, Musk and other executives like SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell stoked speculation in the run-up to the IPO that the companies will eventually merge, and Musk already has a significant record of mushing his companies together really quickly. (Remember that at the beginning of 2025, SpaceX, xAI and X were all separate private companies.) SpaceX and Tesla also already share some employees and say they’re working together on projects like AI agents and chip fabs that should benefit both firms.
For investors looking to buy into a future Musk Inc., buying Tesla seems like the more promising route for now.
AI and the Movies
It’s been an eventful few days for anyone following AI money in Hollywood.
On Monday, Google agreed to invest a reported $75 million in A24, the buzzy independent studio and distributor behind the current box office smash “Backrooms.” Google’s press release was light on details but said the “partnership represents the beginning of a collaborative journey” that is “rooted in research and curiosity”—whatever that means.
The deal involves Google DeepMind developing tools for filmmakers but doesn’t give the company access to A24’s data or library of films and television shows, according to The Wall Street Journal. Still, that hasn’t prevented an outpouring of contempt on social media from moviegoers accusing A24 of selling out to big tech. There was a similar backlash when Thrive Capital invested in A24 two years ago.
More generally, moviegoers seem to be worried about tech companies’ influence on the film industry. Last week’s news that Amazon MGM Studios had dropped plans to release an unflattering film about OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, months after Amazon agreed to invest $50 billion in OpenAI, only adds to such concerns.
However, there are signs AI money hasn’t destroyed independence in film: A leading candidate to pick up the OpenAI movie is now streaming service and distributor Mubi, Variety reported over the weekend. One of Mubi’s biggest investors is Sequoia Capital, which has also invested in OpenAI.
In Other News
Meta Platforms is pausing its employee monitoring tool after a major internal security lapse last week left sensitive employee data collected through the tool broadly accessible to staff across the company.
Open-source AI startup Reflection will pay SpaceX $150 million per month for access to compute from its Colossus 2 data center (more here).
Meta is backing Indian fintech startup Cred with a $900 million investment and tapping its founder to lead WhatsApp.
Today on The Information’s TITV
Check out today's episode of TITV in which we unpack what SpaceX‘s stock market debut could tell us about OpenAI and Anthropic’s IPO efforts.
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