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The Morning Risk Report: U.S. Frees Iran’s Oil, But Broad Sanctions Might Be Hard to Lift
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By Max Fillion | Dow Jones Risk Journal
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Good morning. The Trump administration said Iran’s oil can flow in the short term and that under a proposed peace deal, Tehran could be free from U.S. sanctions for the first time since the 1979 hostage crisis. But unwinding decades of hostile U.S. economic policy won't be easy, Risk Journal reports. (free link)
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Surprise wind-down: A memorandum of understanding, which outlines a plan to end hostilities and would see a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, came with a provision that surprised some observers: the apparent wind-down of longstanding U.S. sanctions on Iran. “The real bombshell in this MOU is the complete lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions,” said Mac Fadlallah, a lawyer and U.S. sanctions expert who heads the Dubai office of Akin Gump. “The intention appears to be to lift all sanctions on Iran.”
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Congressional approval: One potential problem is that, unlike other sanctions packages put in place under executive authority, Congress has codified sanctions on Iran. A durable rollback would require the consent of lawmakers. “It’s unlikely that the universe of Iran sanctions could be lifted en masse without Congress playing some role,” said Daniel Tannebaum, a former U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve official who heads the global anti-financial crime practice at consultancy Oliver Wyman.
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EU and U.K. unknowns: The European Union and U.K. also have imposed sanctions on Iran, but because they aren’t parties to the MOU, their sanctions regimes would in theory remain in place even if the U.S. lifts its sanctions. The EU and U.K. might seek to garner goodwill with the Trump administration and match any sanctions easing, said Lindsay Newman, a geopolitical expert and associate fellow at think tank Chatham House. “It may not be entirely lockstep, but it will likely be in the same direction of travel,” Newman said.
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Long-term prospects: Some observers have questioned whether the MOU, a response to Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure and the resulting shortages of oil, fertilizer and other key commodities, can lead to a long-term peace plan given the volatile situation. Dawson Law, the founder of geopolitical risk consultancy Conseil Global Advisors, said he didn’t expect the memorandum to harden into a long-term deal, calling it a transactional fix. “Washington entered these negotiations under intense time pressure to end the maritime crisis, and Iran used that to secure an incredibly favorable interim deal,” Law said. “It is a fragile pause, not a peace deal.”
See also:
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Family Business CEO Succession: Interest Often Outpaces Readiness
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Successful transitions involve linking a clear success profile with structured development while aligning expectations among family, board, management, and external stakeholders. Read More
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A 2025 Tesla Model 3 self-driving in Los Angeles last year. Mike Blake/Reuters
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Fatal Tesla crash into Texas home now under federal safety investigation.
U.S. auto-safety regulators have opened an investigation into a fatal wreck involving a Tesla that crashed into a home Friday evening and killed one person inside.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the top auto regulator in the country, said Monday that it would examine a crash involving a Tesla Model 3 near Houston.
The driver of the Tesla told police he was operating with an automated driving assistance system, according to a statement by the Harris County Sheriff’s Office. The vehicle left the roadway, “entered through the brick residence at a high rate of speed,” and struck a woman who was inside, sheriff’s officials said. The woman, identified as Martha Avila, later died from injuries sustained in the crash, officials said.
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ABC is taking its fight with the government to its own airwaves.
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Drug companies have increasingly been doing early research in countries like China and Australia where they say it takes less time and money. U.S. officials are taking new steps to keep those studies at home.
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Congress is poised to pass a bill that would ban the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar, which would compete with privately-issued competitors. It’s a win for companies including Circle Internet Group and Coinbase Global, but other threats to stablecoin businesses loom.
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Federal investigators concluded that the catastrophic 2021 partial collapse of the Champlain Towers South condominium in Surfside, Fla., began roughly three weeks before the building fell.~
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Sanofi said it received European Union approval for a new multiple sclerosis medicine, months after the company’s application was turned down by U.S. drug regulators.
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Bastien Ohier/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images
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Trump summons munitions makers as worries grow over low U.S. stockpiles.
President Trump has summoned senior Pentagon officials and the top military contractors to the White House on Wednesday to discuss ramping up munitions production amid concerns about the supply of U.S. missiles, according to people with knowledge of the internal discussions.
Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg notified defense-industry leaders earlier this month to prepare for the meeting, which is expected to be contentious, the people said. The event had been tentatively scheduled for June 11 or 12 but was postponed amid negotiations to end the war with Iran, they said.
Trump is expected to urge arms makers to do more to quickly replace the U.S. missile arsenal, which has been depleted by the war with Iran, the people said.
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International shipping giant DHL is partnering with a French company that operates wind-propelled cargo ships in an effort to lessen freight emissions.
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President Trump accelerated his efforts to boost the burgeoning quantum-computing industry, signing a pair of executive orders aimed at speeding the development of advanced quantum computers and mitigating the security threats they present.
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Risk Journal reports: The European Union extended its main Russia economic sanctions framework for 12 months rather than the customary six, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed, marking the first time the bloc has renewed the measures for a full year.
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Ever since President Trump returned to office last January, he and the Supreme Court have been locked in an uneasy tango. Now, the tempo is about to quicken. Over the next two weeks, the court will race to clear its docket before the justices take their annual summer break. Four remaining cases involve Trump’s aggressive efforts to expand his own power.
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A federal judge in Minnesota has quashed subpoenas the Justice Department issued to state and local authorities during the administration’s immigration crackdown earlier this year, saying the actions were politically motivated.
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When Ukrainian emergency workers clambered onto a damaged structure above Reactor No. 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, there were eerie echoes of 1986.
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The Iranian national soccer team is forbidden from spending the night in America following games. The result is a tense scramble back to its base in Tijuana.
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Alan Greenspan, who started life as a shy, only child of a single mother, transcended the role of central banker, exercising extraordinary influence over American finance and commerce and enjoying unparalleled global stature during a period of remarkable prosperity. But by the time of his death, at age 100, the 2008-09 global financial crisis had recast his aura of technocratic omnipotence.
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