Thanks to Trump You Can Now Fill Your Car with Iranian Gasoline!

1. Iran Wins

Donald Trump and JD Vance’s slow-motion surrender continues in Switzerland. Yesterday the United States showed its full-spectrum dominance and strength by . . . giving the Islamic Republic a license to sell crude oil and petroleum products on the open market.

This is a surrender of the sanctions regime which has been built up over decades. And the best part?

Trump has agreed to let Iran sell oil to America.

Here’s Bloomberg:

The waiver even allows the US to import Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products, opening the door for the first such shipments in decades. . . .

“This waiver doesn’t just weaken the pressure campaign—it puts it into reverse,” said Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors. “Washington spent months building economic leverage and weeks handing Iran a path around it. What took months to build will be dismantled in a fraction of the time.” . . .

Iran had already been rushing to get millions of barrels of its oil into the global market since the peace pact with the US was announced last week. . . .

Iran also has a large fleet of ships that can deliver the country’s cargoes.

The Treasury’s move on Monday also allows for movement of the cargoes on previously sanctioned vessels.

However bad this looks, the reality is worse. Let’s talk about who holds the cards, shall we? Hint: It’s not the American president.

(1) Cui bono? At first blush it seems like only Iran benefits from this concession. Their tankers become unsanctioned. They get to move millions of barrels of oil. They get to sell their oil at market price instead of having to take a gray-market haircut. They get access to hard currency, routed through normal banking channels.

But Trump is getting something, too. He needs Iranian oil in the marketplace as much—or possibly even more—than the Iranians need cash. Bloomberg again:

A potential flood of Iranian oil into the global market is also fueling growing expectations for a near-term glut of supplies, with prices falling to levels not seen since the war began in late February.

Trump is so desperate to get gas prices down that he’s maximizing the flow of oil globally and he doesn’t care who makes money off of it. Which means that even here, it’s the Iranians who have leverage over Trump. Trump needs their oil in the global supply market more than they need cash.

Oops.

(2) We are not going back. It’s funny that the license Trump and Vance granted Iran is only for sixty days. That makes it seem like it’s just a trial period and America could decide to cancel it, or not renew.

The problem is, once Iranian oil is in the international supply line, they have ...