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Good morning. Alto’s high-speed rail line comes with big promises and even bigger challenges – more on that below, along with the latest on the Montreal shooting and Europe’s record-breaking heat wave. But first:
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The high-speed trains would run on new tracks – as opposed to these ones near Toronto's Union Station. Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
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Canada’s first high-speed railway packs a lot of promises into a 45-second teaser video. According to Alto, the Crown corporation developing this project, the train between Toronto and Quebec City is “the solution we need for our country’s economy.” Once built, it will boost productivity and create national prosperity. It will improve access to housing and all manner of jobs. It will “bring our lives and cities closer together.” It will even advance reconciliation with Indigenous peoples.
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But so far, Alto’s fine print hasn’t been as substantial as its big-picture pitch. Actually, that’s an understatement. Nearly a year after Ottawa’s Major Projects Office added the high-speed plan to its list
of nation-building ventures to fast-track, details remain in short supply. Details like: What’s the precise route of this 1,000-km rail line? How many stops will it involve? Where might the trains enter the cities? How often will they run? How many people will they carry? And just how much is this whole thing going to cost?
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Here’s what we do know. The trains are meant to run on new, grade-separated electrified tracks at up to 300 kilometres an hour, cutting the journey between Montreal and Toronto down to three hours. The trip currently takes five-and-a-half hours on Via Rail, provided the train manages to arrive on time, which rarely happens anymore. Travelling from Ottawa to Montreal would take an hour, instead of more than two, while it’d be two hours from Ottawa to Toronto, instead of almost five.
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There will be three stops in Ontario and another four in Quebec – unless Alto tacks on a station in Kingston,
something Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon said this week is his “strong preference.” That would divert the route farther south than Alto’s initial proposal, which already has a fairly wide distance range. The stops would also connect to existing transit and Via Rail services – but not at Gare du Palais in Quebec City, because its historic district is a logistical nightmare, and probably not at Toronto’s Union Station, given the space constraints. Alto has suggested some alternatives, but is yet to confirm where exactly the stations will go.
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A rendering from Alto of its high-speed rail line. Supplied
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As for total construction costs, no official estimate has been released. Alto says the line is expected to require $60-billion to $90-billion – note that $30-billion margin of error – but it’s a safe bet the final price tag will be higher still. An EU audit revealed
that lengthy delays and huge cost overruns were a hallmark of high-speed rail projects. Research by Bent Flyvbjerg, a Danish expert in global megaprojects, found those cost overruns average out to 39 per cent. He even coined an iron law for monumental endeavours: “Over budget, over time, over and over again.”
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Alto has been just as optimistic about the ridership on its rail line, expecting 24 million annual passengers by 2055, and up to 43 million by the mid-2080s. (Via Rail moves roughly three million people today.) For a bit of perspective: The entire Eurostar network in western Europe carries
20 million passengers annually. The Amtrak line that runs frequently between Boston and Washington, D.C. – an area with three times as many people as the Toronto-Quebec City corridor – topped out at 3.1 million passengers last year.
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That’s not to say high-speed rail isn’t a worthy ambition: Canada is the only G7 nation without this kind of line. Travelling by train in France, or Japan, or Italy is an absolute pleasure, and puts vastly more of the country within reach. The federal government has already committed $5-billion in planning expenses; it will decide in 2029 whether to go ahead with the project so work can start between Montreal and Ottawa. Hopefully Alto will have laid out more details by then.
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‘Behind the uniform was an exceptional man.’
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The investigation into the shooting in Montreal, which killed three, is ongoing. Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
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Tributes poured in yesterday for Mohamed Lamine Benredouane, a 34-year-old police constable, and Michel Mizrahi, a 68-year-old shop owner, both killed in a gun battle outside a Montreal hotel on Monday. Officials confirmed that the suspect, also deceased, is a 25-year-old from Alberta who seems to have been largely motivated
by incel ideology. Read more here about the shooting and its aftermath.
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What else we’re following
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At home: Union leaders, labour activities and lobbyists agree that, 15 months into his tenure as Prime Minister, Mark Carney shows a stark lack of interest in worker issues.
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Abroad: France registered its hottest day on record – climbing to 44.3 C – as Europe swelters through a ferocious early-summer heat wave.
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