Welcome back. This newsletter comes to you from a fast train to Warsaw after spending two days at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk.
As a personal anecdote, I have attended every edition of this conference, starting with Lugano in 2022, when the Swiss government, in a notable shift from its historical policy of neutrality, decided to host the event and put the question of reconstruction on the table just months after Russia’s full-scale invasion began. At the time, only a small group of journalists showed up. After all, what was the point of talking about rebuilding a country still at war?
And yet, the URC has grown in size and political clout, with billions committed to current and future projects, alongside a major diplomatic push from European countries looking to mobilise private investment.
As I toured the trade fair aiming to do just that, two things became clear: Ukraine has an extraordinary ability to innovate in the most difficult circumstances, but serious obstacles remain — and the two main ones have barely changed since the days of Lugano. The first is how to de-risk investments in the country from the impact of war — who will insure damaged assets, for example? The second is whether the rule of law is strong enough to provide investors with confidence that there will be due process.
One senior European official on the sidelines told me that corruption is not just a perception — it is a problem — and that the scandals that have come into the spotlight over the past year have caused damage.
On stage, I moderated a panel discussion with Marta Kos, the EU Commissioner responsible for enlargement, and David Lammy, the UK’s Deputy Prime Minister, after yet another whirlwind week in British politics (what’s new?). Both acknowledged that these are difficult conversations, but they also pointed to fundamental improvements in the fight against corruption.
Kos also told me that having the rule of law as the first cluster in accession negotiations is no coincidence: it is one of the most difficult areas to address, and it will be essential to attracting foreign capital and building a path to EU membership. Ukraine wants and needs both.
Kos knows what she is talking about.
Last summer, after Ukraine's parliament approved a law undermining the independence of two anti-corruption bodies, she issued a clear warning aimed at Kyiv: any changes affecting judicial independence would hinder EU accession. The law was later reversed following protests. Among the audience, I spotted civil society. They are Ukraine’s best hope — relentless, uncompromising when it comes to democratic principles, and extraordinarily active.
When it comes to the politics, the conference crystallised growing tensions between Poland, the host country, and Ukraine, its co-host — a remarkable shift from the early days of the war, when Warsaw emerged as Kyiv’s strongest supporter. But the relationship between them has deteriorated — and quickly.
Right before the conference, Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki, far more nationalist than Donald Tusk, stripped Zelenskyy of a medal representing the country’s highest honour, arguing that the renaming of a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army was an insult to the Polish people.
The UPA, as it is known, was involved in the killing of an estimated 100,000 Poles during the Second World War. In a video address, Nawrocki called Zelenskyy’s decision “outrageous, incomprehensible and deeply disappointing”. The issue is very delicate, as the killings that Warsaw accuses the UPA of carrying out amount to genocide for many in Poland to this day.
For his part, Zelenskyy did not attend the conference and returned the medal, alongside senior Ukrainian government officials, while pointing to his side of the story. The request to change the unit’s name came from the Ukrainian army — which the President had described just a week earlier as Ukraine’s modern heroes — and in Ukraine, the UPA is seen as having fought for independence.
The episode reflects both the unhealed wounds of the Second World War and, to a large degree, the weaponisation of history for political purposes.
One European official told me that the timing of Nawrocki’s decision to strip Zelenskyy of the medal was intended to “blow up the conference and humiliate [Donald] Tusk” on his home turf. But Zelenskyy’s response, highlighting how Poland has also honoured figures such as Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini and Russian Empress Catherine the Great, wasn't particularly diplomatic either.
The saga puts Tusk in a difficult position too. As the conference kicked off, the Polish prime minister tried to contain the fallout by calling for “mutual respect” and highlighting the business opportunities for Polish companies in a large market like Ukraine. Yet the damage is done.
Two opinion polls published this week revealed a significant shift in Polish public sentiment: more than half of Poles surveyed said the reference to the UPA had cast Ukraine in a negative light, while close to 60% said they oppose Kyiv’s accession to the European Union.
The change in perception is also palpable in everyday conversations. I heard first-hand comments about the “flashy” lifestyle of some Ukrainians living in Poland, the perception that there are “too many” Ukrainians, and what seemed like resentment over the fact that “some speak Russian”. To be fair, I also heard criticism of Nawrocki. All of this is to say that the tensions are real, and next year’s parliamentary elections in Poland will only add fuel to the fire.
What’s clear is that the initial solidarity is shifting into competition, even if Poles continue to say that Ukraine is fighting against a common threat: Russia. Ultimately, we are looking at two large countries in Eastern Europe, with similarly sized populations — assuming all Ukrainians return once the war ends — and industries geared towards overlapping sectors, including agriculture.
Can the relationship be fixed?
My conclusion coming out of Gdańsk is that, given the weight of history and conflicting political interests, not really. But it can — and must — be managed.
Ukraine should also learn to play its cards carefully and keep the Polish on its side, because it will need Warsaw if it is serious about joining the European Union. Anyone who thought that, with Viktor Orbán gone, the vetoes would disappear is mistaken.
The next stage of this escalation is not difficult to foresee: a political campaign against Ukraine’s EU membership, looking ahead to the 2027 vote, when the opposition PiS will want to portray Tusk as a puppet of both Kyiv and Brussels.
So, was the conference a failure? That is a different question.
Politically, it was not a good look. A conference about Ukraine without its President. But these conferences are also measured by deals and financial pledges. From Gdańsk, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the first €3 billion tranche of the hard-fought €90 billion loan package for Ukraine would be disbursed. The UK also announced another £290 million contribution for energy infrastructure ahead of winter. The World Bank signed a separate agreement pledging $3 billion in guarantees.
In my interview with Lammy, he said the UK would remain committed to Ukraine no matter what — and no matter who the next prime minister is (surprise, no surprise: it will be Andy Burnham). “Nothing will change,” he told me. Lammy also said London supports Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU — an ironic twist of fate, if you ask me. You can watch the full interview here.
And yet, for all the positive spin, I left Gdańsk sensing a growing climate of confrontation. This will get nastier before it gets better.
That’s all from me for this week — but before I go, we have to talk about the big birthday bash.
On Sunday, the US diplomatic mission will host the 250th anniversary of America’s independence at the Cinquantenaire in Brussels. It’s the hottest — and most controversial — ticket in town.
Coincidentally, I had a chat at a dinner this week with the US Ambassador to the EU, Andrew Puzder, who told me they are expecting around 5,000 people, although the party itself is being handled by the US Ambassador to Belgium, Bill White. Note the difference. Apparently, the entertainment includes some big American names in the music industry — but I must confess I had never heard of a single one of them. In fact, I forgot their names.
As for the guest list, after spending a year championing Europe’s own “Independence Day”, I am very curious to see which Europeans will turn up at a party that almost coincides with the much-maligned Turnberry agreement, which resulted in triple tariffs on the EU. I hear Ursula von der Leyen’s all-powerful chief of staff, Björn Seibert, will be there. I’ll report back next week.
As always, if you have any comments, email me at maria.tadeo@euronews.com. — Maria Tadeo | 
