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Add the job market at small firms to the list of summertime signs of a rising U.S. economy. But how high can it rise without more workers? The July employment report from the National Federation of Independent Business, due out later today, shows plentiful opportunities and a rising desire to hire among the owners of small U.S. firms. The NFIB Small Business Employment Index, which integrates actual and planned changes in employment and compensation into one measurement of job-market health, is showing a healthy
bounce. NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg reports today: The Employment Index rose 1.9 points in July, registering 102.1 in July compared to 100.2 in June. This is the first increase following four consecutive months of decline. The current reading is above the 2025 average of 101.2 and the historical average of 100.0. In July, 36% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 4 points from June and the highest reading since
June 2025. Thirty-one percent have openings for skilled workers (up 4 points), and 14% have openings for unskilled labor (up 2 points). Looking ahead, a seasonally adjusted net 20% of owners plan to create new jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June. Hiring plans are at their highest level since October 2022 and are 9 points above the historical average.
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