Washington, DC

1. Senate hopes for a weekend
2. Blanche gets to 50
3. Economy sheds jobs
4. Mining investments unveiled
5. New alliance in Middle East

Investors now say there’s a 42% chance the Fed hikes rates in September, ▼ from 55%.

College sports and hemp snag Senate endgame

Senate Republican leaders are polling members on a deal to take several high-profile votes before leaving town for August, even as senators haggle over the details. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said the Senate can still finish today but work could spill into the weekend. The priority for Thune is a short-term government funding bill, saddled with drama by Sen. Ted Budd’s, R.-N.C., amendment striking a delay in a hemp products ban. While Budd thinks it will pass, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services chief Mehmet Oz is whipping against it. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, wants to pass his college sports bill today, but there are objections to finishing the bill this week; a procedural vote is possible. Republicans also hope to confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general and hold votes on a voter ID bill from Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, and a budget resolution.

— Burgess Everett

Blanche on track for confirmation thanks to Cassidy

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche is on track to shed the first word from his title, as the Senate prepares to vote on his confirmation before going on its August break this weekend. Blanche picked up the 50th vote he needed this morning from Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La. The senator announced his support for Blanche in a floor speech that became a must-watch after the other swing GOP vote on the nomination, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, announced earlier today that she would oppose his confirmation. “I’ll be criticized for this vote,” Cassidy said. “What’s new?” The Louisianan, whose primary defeat this year was orchestrated by the president, acknowledged that “I have a history with Mr. Trump,” but argued that it “does not matter” when evaluating Blanche. All Democrats present are expected to vote no, with Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, also opposed.

US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July

US employment took an unexpected nosedive in July, with new Labor Department data today showing the economy lost 23,000 jobs instead of picking up 83,000 jobs, as economists had predicted. Data beyond the topline was also bleak: Wage growth slid to 3.2% —the lowest in five years, and below current inflation of 3.5%. Unemployment fell, but for the wrong reason — job seekers are leaving the workforce at a rate not seen since February 2021. The combination of high inflation and a weak labor market creates a predicament for the Federal Reserve. Investors have expected a rate hike this year, but this afternoon the dollar fell, indicating that expectations of an increase dropped on the labor data. The central bank’s new chair, Kevin Warsh, prefers less public communication than his predecessor, making predictions about his next move difficult.

Trump unveils new critical minerals investments

Trump announced plans to invest more than $2 billion in mining projects and $180 million in mining schools at a roundtable Friday as his administration ramps up its efforts to stockpile critical minerals amid the Iran war. The projects include a $1.4 billion loan to Sila Nanontechnologies for batteries, a $400 million loan for scandium, and a $150 million loan to Niron Magnetics for magnets, plus $58 million in Export-Import Bank financing for graphite and boron. “Critical minerals are the raw materials of American strength and power … and we want these essential products to be mined, refined, and made here in the USA with American skill and American hands,” Trump, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, said at the State Department event. “American miners have never had a greater champion in the White House than President Donald Trump.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Iran war scrambles alliances in Middle East

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a mutual defense pact today, as the war in Iran reshapes strategic alliances throughout the Middle East. Last month Saudi Arabia spearheaded the creation of a separate, 14-country coalition to combat attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea. The White House had hoped to announce a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz this week, after suspending a planned round of attacks on Iran last weekend. But optimism has faded over the past two days amid reports of terms the US would find unacceptable, including banning US and Israeli ships from the strait. The Wall Street Journal reported today that Arab mediators fear Iran’s diplomats simply do not have the clout to ensure the country complies with the terms of any deal reached.

White House

• President Trump is “considering” firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, about a month after the Supreme Court thwarted a previous White House effort to oust her.
• The Treasury announced today it is blacklisting two crypto exchanges it believes Iran uses to bypass sanctions, escalating economic pressure on Tehran as talks continue. —Bloomberg

Congress

• The Senate confirmed Cameron Hamilton, a former Navy SEAL, to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Courts

• President Trump suggested on Truth Social he would appeal a federal appeals court decision today to uphold a block on construction of his ballroom, setting up a likely showdown at the Supreme Court.
• A prosecutor who was fired after a MAGA influencer called for his ouster on social media is suing the Justice Department over his dismissal.

Technology

• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission warned prediction markets to avoid using American-style gambling odds to market wagers. —Bloomberg

Campaigns

• Republican Senate candidate in Michigan’s Republican nominee for Senate, Mike Rogers, is courting Democrats in the aftermath of a bitter Democratic primary. —Politico

Economy

• President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speak frequently on the phone about the economy, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who said today that he’s “sure” the president is not pressuring Warsh on interest rates. —Bloomberg TV

National Security

• The Army is opening up its ranges to private firms to test drones, long-range missiles, and other critical weapons technology. —Bloomberg

Outside the Beltway

• Water rationing has begun in Puerto Rico amid a severe drought.

— Justice Samuel Alito, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

Semafor DC Team

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel