Today, JPow successor Kevin Warsh will deliver his biggest speech yet at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, and the question on everyone’s mind is: Will he stay mysterious, or will he share his thoughts on the economy with the class? The Fed Chair’s Wyoming address is always closely watched, but eyes may be a bit more peeled this year. It’s Warsh’s first one since being confirmed in May, and so far, he’s been exceptionally cryptic: He abandoned forward guidance on interest rates, he floated the idea of fewer policy meetings, and Wall Street has criticized his inflation commentary as overly vague. Though Warsh intentionally keeps his trap mostly shut (he’s argued that too much transparency can limit the Fed’s flexibility and make markets overly dependent on its words), economists are losing patience. They want Warsh to speak on… - Whether he thinks inflation has remained stubborn because the economy is too hot (a case for raising rates) or because of price shocks from tariffs and the Iran war (a case against raising rates).
- How he feels about the Treasury Department’s plan to support the bond market with a buyback, following a bond selloff that sent borrowing costs soaring.
Warsh’s colleagues have been more outspoken“I believe now is the time to act” on raising interest rates, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC yesterday. She was one of three voting members who wanted the Fed to raise rates by a quarter-point at its July meeting instead of holding steady at 3.5%–3.75%—marking the highest number of unified dissents on a Fed decision since 2016. Temp check: Based on softer economic data over the past two months, markets are betting that the Fed won’t raise rates at its September meeting. That sentiment could be strengthened or swayed today, depending on how coy Warsh plays his speech.—ML | 
