Washington, DC

1. Trump’s shrinking circle
2. Iran, US trade fire
3. Bessent’s G20 test
4. Warsh risks Trump ire
5. Dueling in Michigan
6. House returns
7. The next populist outrage?

PDB: ‘Lake America’ on Google Maps

Trump makes healthcare announcement … Vance speaks at Republican Jewish Coalition event … Xi, Putin head to Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit

Trump’s WH inner circle is shrinking

The White House departure of several of President Donald Trump’s closest advisers — from Karoline Leavitt to James Braid to David Warrington — is reshaping the management of a deeply personal presidency, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott writes. The turnover is familiar, particularly for presidents entering their final two years in office. But the stakes may be higher for Trump, whose West Wing has been defined by a small circle of top aides with direct, frequent access to him. That circle is small by design after Trump’s chaotic first term; one former administration official said there’s an effort “to keep things tight and in the family.” There are downsides to that, though, with another former official describing a consolidation of power as top aides leave, where “the people that have been with POTUS the longest will benefit.”

US and Iran exchange fire as conflict flares

The US and Iran traded fire for the first time in more than a month, even as the Trump administration frames economic measures as its primary lever against Tehran. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US forces stationed in Jordan, while Trump posted an AI-generated image of Kharg Island, a key energy hub, saying it was being “blown to smithereens.” US forces “remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce” through the strait, a US official said, per CNN. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s threatened “financial violence” against Iran will include more banking sanctions, he told AP Sunday. It comes as the cost of the conflict compounds: Top commanders warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that extended large-scale operations against Iran are “unsustainable,” The Washington Post reported.

Bessent faces tough task at G20 meeting

Bessent faces a tough crowd as he gathers Group of 20 finance ministers in Asheville starting today. The Trump administration will encounter questions from the group about its opaque strategy in Iran; Bessent recently threatened steeper economic penalties on Iran’s trading partners — namely, China — if they don’t distance themselves from Tehran. And G20 members are facing new tariffs after the administration announced penalties meant to replace its earlier tariff regime, which was voided by the Supreme Court. Perhaps the most tense interactions will occur between the US and Canada, as a trade war between two nominally close allies escalates. These factors will make it more difficult for Bessent to convince G20 members to get on the same page as the US on a variety of issues, including AI oversight. G20 ministers “won’t buy into soothing words,” one former official told Reuters, noting many countries are dealing with the Iran war’s economic effects.

Warsh puts Fed, Trump on collision course

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has put the central bank on a collision course with Trump. The president’s pick struck a hawkish tone Friday in his most revealing remarks yet on how he views the economy, convincing investors — if not everyone — that he may support a rate hike next month. Doing so would undoubtedly draw Trump’s ire, raising borrowing costs just weeks before voters decide whether Republicans should keep control of Congress. Already, “there’s just a general shift of downward optimism” amid Republicans and independents, The Conference Board’s chief economist, Dana Peterson, told Semafor on the sidelines of the annual Kansas City Fed gathering, where Warsh spoke. “He’ll have to make sure he has a lot of explanations beforehand” for the administration “because this will cause some disturbance,” former Kansas City Fed President Tom Hoenig said in another interview.

— Eleanor Mueller

Vance heads to MI to support Rogers

Both parties are barnstorming Michigan as the Senate race in the crucial swing state heats up. Vice President JD Vance is slated to campaign with GOP nominee Mike Rogers and other Michigan Republicans at a MAGA Inc. event today, an early sign that the race will be a priority for the group and its $400 million war chest. Vance’s remarks are expected to touch on the races in the state and the fight against fraud, according to a person familiar with his plans. The Trump administration’s new tariffs on Canada have Rogers walking a fine line: Over the weekend, he said that “tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution.” Democrats are looking to capitalize on border-state backlash to the tariffs. Rogers’ opponent, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, will appear with former primary challenger Mallory McMorrow in a show of party unity today.

House comes back to crowded agenda

The House returns today after its August recess with government funding atop its to-do list. House GOP leaders are preparing to put a Senate-passed measure punting the funding deadline through December on the House floor. The short-term funding bill sailed through the Senate in a bipartisan vote at the beginning of August, and it’s likely to meet the two-thirds majority required to pass it under fast-track rules in the House. House conservatives could still balk at the inclusion of a provision blocking a Trump administration-backed rule overhauling federal grantmaking. The House will also take up a measure censuring Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., over sexual harassment allegations. Edwards dropped his reelection bid after the House Ethics Committee released its report on his conduct. House lawmakers are otherwise focused on the midterms; Republicans teed up a resolution condemning socialism for consideration this week.

— Nicholas Wu

Murphy on private equity in youth sports

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., thinks private equity’s involvement in youth sports will spark the next populist outrage. The Connecticut Democrat and Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Pa., are pushing a bill aimed at restricting private equity’s investment in youth sports that has some Democratic co-sponsors. But Murphy said that after the midterms, he’ll be aiming to find GOP supporters and to fashion a bipartisan solution that can be considered next year, as the tides turn on the issue. “I think that’s an issue that’ll be bipartisan over time,” Murphy told Semafor. “I think in the next Congress we’ll be able to do a version of that bill that has Republican support.” Murphy drew a parallel to bipartisan consensus against AI data centers, arguing that both parties recognize the rising cost of travel sports is unsustainable for many families.

— Burgess Everett

Blindspot: Measles and deportations

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A local coroner disputed Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s announcement of two measles-related deaths in the state last week, saying one was due to other causes.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration deported to the Central African Republic an Afghan man who had been given protection after his brothers supported the US military in Afghanistan. 

On Tuesday, September 15, Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J.; Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.; Dr. Emily Aaronson, Chief Medical Officer, Walmart; The Honorable Alex M. Azar II, 24th Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services; Chris Butler, Vice President & Head of Drug Discovery, Isomorphic Labs; and Amber Guild, CEO Elect, Susan G. Komen will join Semafor’s The Future of Health to unpack innovation and access of US healthcare.

From breakthrough therapies and AI-enabled care to the investments and policy decisions shaping the next generation of medicine, on-the-record conversations will explore how innovation can expand access, improve patient outcomes, and build a more affordable, effective healthcare system.

Sept. 15 | Washington, DC | Request Invite

White House

• The Pentagon would help finance the planned Venezuelan oil venture announced by President Trump on Friday, a “striking expansion of its remit.” — WSJ
• Trump called for NBC’s Kristen Welker to face punishment from the FCC over a segment during which she discussed the power of his endorsement.

Congress

• Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., wants to expand the number of Supreme Court justices to “a baker’s dozen.” — NBC
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is shaking up her campaign and congressional staff. — Axios

Outside the Beltway

• One person died and 15 are missing following a