The state’s open Senate seat is a top target for national Republicans in November, though Democrats are currently favored.
TUE., SEP. 8, 2026
By Steve Kornacki
Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In today’s edition: Why Republicans believe they have a shot at a Senate seat in New Hampshire. Let’s dive in.
What I’m watching
New Hampshire is not expected to be a key Senate battleground this fall, but Republicans have their fingers crossed for a democratic socialist victory tonight that would scramble that thinking.
The Republican primary for the Senate is straightforward enough. In the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, GOP voters are likely to nominate John E. Sununu, who held the seat for a term before losing to Shaheen back in 2008. Sununu — whose family is well known in New Hampshire politics — enjoys a commanding polling lead over Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2012 before moving to New Hampshire and unsuccessfully challenging Shaheen in 2014. The bulk of the party’s leadership is backing Sununu, including, crucially, President Donald Trump.
The Democratic contest is where the suspense lies.
(Bloomberg via Getty Images; CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
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