Labor Day typically marks the beginning of fall campaign season, and now that we’re here, I want to establish a righteous mindset.
The future is unwritten; Republicans will try everything they can, including illegal things, to avoid losing power. But by the numbers, that’s where they’re headed. And if they do lose, I want everyone active in politics left of center to be disciplined about why. Not because of progressivism, or moderation. Not because of “affordability” and consistent messaging. Because the public rose to fundamentally repudiate MAGA.
If this is what happens, it will be clear to everyone with open eyes and a shred of honesty. Trump-backed candidates are poised to lose Senate races in North Carolina, Georgia, and possibly even Texas. Donald Trump won the 2024 election by less than two points, without a popular majority. Democrats are up about six or seven points in the generic congressional ballot, and their lead is widening, consistent with a 2018-sized blowout.
The greatest trick Trump and his loyalists ever pulled was convincing the American establishment that a sub two-point popular vote plurality in the 2024 election represented a total and permanent repudiation of liberal culture and the Democratic Party. The coming election could be something like the reverse—minus the spin and lies. It could represent America reaching the end of the line with MAGA. But to have the effect of containing fascism—of making Republicans adhere to rules and respond to the public will—it’ll have to be understood as a verdict. And to be understood that way, the Democratic Party will have to assert those stakes, and then claim them in victory.
