Action Network — Tuesday Sportsbook Report

Sportsbook Report

NFL · Inside the Books

Patrick Everson

Sportsbook Insider

The Week 2 numbers sportsbooks are watching

Week 1 is in the books, and sportsbooks are already adjusting for the Week 2 slate. I checked in with Borgata Sports, the BetMGM property in Atlantic City, to see which numbers are moving and where the books are exposed.

Biggest takeaway: It's Thursday night's Lions-Bills total. Borgata Sports opened it at 53.5, three points higher than any other Week 2 total on the board.

Open

Now

Lions @ Bills

Highest total of the week, with early action on Bills and Under, but no move on the total yet

O/U 53.5

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O/U 53.5

Commanders @ Cowboys

Dallas fading after Sunday night loss to the Giants

DAL -4.5

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DAL -4

Giants @ Rams

Giants earning respect after pushing Dallas around in Week 1

LAR -7.5

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LAR -7

Open the NFL Odds Board →

“ Book Chatter

I'm expecting the public to come in here early on the Over, even with the extremely high total. But the very early money has been on the Bills and the Under.

Tom Gable

Borgata Sports, Sportsbook Director

What Borgata Sports is watching

Lions vs. Bills

At Borgata Sports, a BetMGM property in Atlantic City, the number that jumped off the board at open was a 53.5-point total in the Thursday night game. That's 3 points higher than any other NFL Week 2 total.

“I'm expecting the public to come in here early on the Over, even with the extremely high total. But the very early money has been on the Bills and the Under,” Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said.

Commanders vs. Cowboys

Dallas opened -4.5, but is down to -4. That's in part due to Sunday night's 28-20 road loss to the Giants, and Washington giving Philadelphia a good fight in Week 1, covering as a 6-point road 'dog in a 24-22 loss.

“The Commanders are on my personal nice list, after they came through with the late cover against the Eagles. We will probably need them again here against Dallas in Week 2,” Gable said.

Giants vs. Rams

New York got more oddsmaker respect in Week 2, after pushing Dallas around in Week 1.

“We dropped the Rams from -7.5 to -7. We raised the Giants' rating after Sunday night, and we've seen a decent amount of action on them today,” Gable said Monday night.

NFL · Data Lookahead

PJ Walsh

Data & Modeling

Two numbers already catching sharp money

Thursday night is two days away, and Action PRO's tools are flagging where the pros are positioning before the public catches up.

Week 1 is in the books, and a quick scan of Action PRO's tools reveals two numbers quietly landing sharp money from the market's best bettors: Lions vs. Bills and Seahawks vs. Cardinals.

2 NFL Predictions for Week 2

*Odds as of Tuesday, Sept. 15

Lions vs. Bills

Following season-opening victories, the Lions and Bills face off on Thursday Night Football in Week 2

Buffalo was listed as a 3.5-point favorite against Detroit Monday morning – a number the wiseguys found too short.

Sharps steamed Josh Allen & Company at -3.5, forcing an adjustment from oddsmakers to Bills -4.5.

Betting Splits

Bills -4.5

Tickets

22%

Money

62%

+40%

Diff

In addition, while 78% of the early action is taking the Lions and the points, 62% of the real money wagered has come in on the Bills thus far.

PRO Prediction

Bills -4.5

-110

CONSENSUS

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

The Seahawks and backup quarterback Drew Lock gutted out a come-from-behind victory against the Patriots last week, while the Cardinals shocked the Chargers, winning straight up as a 9.5-point underdogs.

When it comes to this Week 2 matchup, smart money is taking an early position on the under.

This total sat at 42.5 on Sunday night before sharp action hit the under, driving the line down to a consensus of 41.5, and even a half-point further to 41 at some sportsbooks.

Line Movement

Under 41.5

Sunday Night

Total 42.5

→

Now

Under 41.5

PRO Prediction

Under 41.5

-110

CONSENSUS