At the annual meeting of the UN yesterday, Donald Trump threatened, for the umpteenth time, to annihilate Iran—just before heralding the success of the first direct talks between America and Iran in months. Caught between escalation and negotiation, America seems stuck in the Middle East. 

That is what makes the insight behind this week’s Insider so striking to me. We will be sitting down to discuss whether, however the war is resolved, America’s hegemony in the Middle East is in fact coming to an end. If so, it would be the first time since the great powers dismembered the Ottoman Empire a century ago that the Middle East’s security was no longer imposed from outside.

Despite the bravado of the American president, all the signs are there. Earlier this month, he refused to join Saudi Arabia in striking the Houthis in Yemen. Instead America held talks with the militia behind the Saudis’ backs—infuriating its ally in Riyadh. Many believe that America will cut its military presence in the region; its last remaining soldiers in Iraq are set to leave at the end of this month. Its bases, which have cemented its power, were pummelled in the war. Will they be rebuilt?

Why might America want to step back from a part of the world in which it has invested so much? To understand the shifting tides, I’ll be joined in the studio by our regional experts: Josie Delap, our Middle East editor, and Gregg Carlstrom and Nick Pelham, our Middle East correspondents. Anshel Pfeffer, our Israel correspondent, will beam in from Jerusalem.

While some reckon that America is pulling back after being exhausted by its war in Iran, my sense is that the country is making a hard-nosed calculation about where its national interests really lie. Do my colleagues agree? Or do they put it down to fatigue and the signs that Israel no longer has the strong, bipartisan support that it once did? 

We’ll then consider which countries have the heft to begin filling the vacuum America would leave. Three stand out to me—and none of them is Arab. The most dangerous is Iran: if its regime survives the ongoing war, it could cement control over the Strait of Hormuz, rebuild militias abroad and even restart work on a nuclear weapon. I will ask Nick, our Iran expert, how he sees the regime’s future. 

Gregg can explain how Turkey has been quietly building closer ties with Arab countries including Syria and Iraq. Anshel will shed light on how Israel sees its role as the region’s dominant military and intelligence power—and the importance of its relationship with the United Arab Emirates under the Abraham accords. And Josie, as our regional editor, can pull this together by analysing whether these three could possibly find a way to live together.

And what of the Arab countries, which have long yearned for a chance to recover lost glory? America’s retrenchment might give them a chance to do so. But first they must overcome a history of missed opportunities and division.

Finally, we’ll discuss what might help bring about a better outcome. Can the Arab countries work together—especially the wealthy members of the Gulf, which all have well-equipped armed forces? Can outsiders contribute something, even if they’re no longer calling the shots? Is there a way to revive the lost art of Middle East diplomacy?

The show will be available to watch from 6pm London time (1pm in New York) on Thursday. We’ll be reviewing the results of this week’s poll during the discussion, as well as answering some of your questions. Please tell us what you want to know by using the Q&A feature on the episode page. And if you have feedback or suggestions for future episodes, please write to insider@economist.com.