Trouble is brewing in the bond markets again, as investors grow more concerned about inflation, and signs that the US economy may be running too hot.
Government borrowing costs jumped yesterday, and are rising again in Asia-Pacific markets this morning; a move that is pulling down share prices.
Wednesday’s trigger was a surprisingly strong survey of US businesses - as we covered yesterday - showing that activity was rising at the fastest pace in five years, amid a surge in costs. This prompted a sell-off in US government bonds, as traders calculated that this might prompt further rises in interest rates to cool inflation.
Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, says: “With unemployment at 4.1% and growth running above trend, the US economy is showing signs of modest overheating. The Federal Reserve will therefore be firmly on notice. If the next inflation readings continue to print hot, policymakers may conclude that aggregate demand needs to be brought lower through the blunt tool of higher interest rates.”
Investors were also alarmed by a surprisingly weak auction of US five-year bonds last night, which attracted low demand – perhaps a sign that appetite for Treasury bonds is waning.
With bond prices sliding, the yield (or rate of return) on five-year US Treasuries was driven over 5% for the first time since 2007. Ten-year US Treasury yields surged over 5%, in their biggest one-day move since Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement almost 18 months ago.
These moves are rattling the wider global bond market (as US debt is the “risk-free” asset used as a benchmark by global financial markets). Already today, yields on Japan’s benchmark bonds have hit their highest level in decades.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, puts it simply: “Economic activity expanded strongly while price pressures remained elevated. That’s the perfect combination for fuelling further rate-hike expectations.”
Financial markets are now much more confident that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rates at least one more time this year.
According to CME Fedwatch, there’s now a 55% chance that US rates are half a percentage point higher by the end of December – implying two quarter-point rate rises (or one beefy hike!). That’s on top of the Fed’s hike earlier this month.
Today’s key events
• 11am BST: CBI distributive trades survey of UK retailers
• 8.30am BST: Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision
• 1.30pm BST: US jobless claims data
We’ll be tracking all the main events throughout the day on our business live blog …
