Good evening. There is a lot of wind in Democrats’ sails right now, as voters sour on the economy and on President Trump. But the picture isn’t entirely rosy for them. Tonight, I’ve asked Ruth Igielnik, a Times polling editor, to tell us about the good news for Republicans in our latest poll. — Jess Bidgood
3 bright spots for the G.O.P.This week we put out our latest set of New York Times/Siena University polls examining how voters are feeling about the Senate races in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. They contain a lot of good news for Democrats — something of a theme in our recent polls. In Michigan, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is ahead by 5 percentage points, in a state where Democrats worried that his contentious primary may have fractured the base. And in New Hampshire, where Democrats were sounding the alarm that their chances may be slipping away, the Democrat Chris Pappas has a 5 percentage point lead. But there is also quite a bit of good news for Republicans. Here are three things that stood out. 1. There has been a change in Maine.When we last polled Maine’s Senate race, in June, the Republican incumbent Susan Collins was trailing Graham Platner, then the Democratic nominee, by 2 percentage points. But things have been shaken up since then. Platner left the race after a former girlfriend accused him of rape, which he denied. Troy Jackson, a former logger and state lawmaker, took his place on the ballot. And now, our poll finds Collins with a slim 3-point lead. A majority of voters say they view Collins positively, which was not the case in our poll over the summer. She has made gains with independent voters, and is even winning 8 percent of Democrats. What shines through brightly in the poll is that voters believe Collins is delivering for Maine. Nearly 60 percent of voters — including 63 percent of independents and even 20 percent of Democrats — say they think Collins would do a better job bringing money and resources to the state than Jackson would. 2. Republican Senate candidates are running ahead of the party.Even though Collins is the only of the three Republican Senate candidates in these polls with a lead, all three are outperforming other measures of Republican success. One example: Each of the Republicans is outrunning President Trump’s popularity in their states, sometimes by double digits. In Michigan, where 34 percent of voters approve of Trump, 44 percent plan to vote for Mike Rogers, the Republican, for Senate.
And in each of the races, Republican candidates are winning some voters who otherwise say they want Democrats to control the Senate. In New Hampshire, John Sununu, the Republican, is winning 7 percent of voters who say they want Democrats in charge of the chamber. In Maine, Collins is winning 12 percent of those voters. Taken together, these are signs that in these competitive, Democratic-leaning states, Republicans have nominated strong candidates who appeal beyond their base. 3. As Democrats are divided, Republicans are united.Lisa Lerer and I wrote this afternoon about how the Democratic Party is sorting through some tough internal divides. And while voters said they felt the primary process had made them stronger, they were sharply divided on the question of whether they were divided. We asked Democrats across the country if they felt the party was united or divided. About half said the party was united, and half said divided. Those numbers are nearly identical to a survey we ran in 2016. Republicans, on the other hand, are feeling very unified. In our most recent national survey, 70 percent of Republicans said they felt the party was united. That is a dramatic departure from 10 years ago. In 2016, more than 80 percent of Republicans said they thought the party was divided. More from our polls: Incumbent parties have the edge in governor’s races in Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. GET CAUGHT UP
Outbursts, a shove and a chameleon named Meatball: What we learned about Mary Peltola.A Times investigation this week found that Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate in a tight Senate race in Alaska, had mistreated staff and used offensive language. Nine former staff members told us that Peltola was prone to angry and profane outbursts. Aides said they had heard her using slurs for gay and disabled people, and had seen her shove a staff member. She once said, in apparent reference to a local Planned Parenthood official, “I hope she dies of a botched abortion.” A campaign spokesman denied that Peltola had a pattern of abusive behavior, but acknowledged that she had struggled with grief after losing her mother and husband in the span of a few months. Alaskans react: We asked voters in Anchorage and Fairbanks about the revelations. While some said they were dismayed, they didn’t plan to change their vote. “It doesn’t move the needle one iota for me,” Cameron Sanders, a small-business owner, said. An Alaskan tradition: “Alaska’s representatives on Capitol Hill have long brought a special brand of coarseness to Washington,” our reporters in D.C. write. They put together this history. IN ONE NUMBER ZeroThat’s how many illegal voters the state of Nevada found, out of 185 names the Department of Homeland Security had flagged as noncitizens on voter rolls. It was another stumble in the Trump administration’s campaign to find proof of illicit immigrant voting. WHAT I’M WATCHING
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A television ad debuted on right-wing networks this week. Its content was not particularly surprising: images of Trump set to an R&B song titled “Love Me,” and text reading: “America will never be a communist country.” What was surprising, though, was the disclaimer at the end: “Paid for by the U.S. government.” Democrats quickly demanded answers, calling on the White House to explain whether taxpayer money had been used to fund the ad. The White House said the spots were not political, but rather “public service announcements.” WHERE IN THE WORLD?
Patricia Mazzei snapped the photo above on a recent reporting trip. Can you tell where she was?
Choose an answer, and we’ll take you to the story so you can see if you’re right. (We’ve also made the story free to read.)
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