A close Senate race pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek.
TUE., SEP. 29, 2026
By Steve Kornacki
Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. Today, can Democrats reverse Republicans’ recent gains in Iowa? Let’s dive in.
What I’m watching
Over the last decade, President Donald Trump remade Iowa’s political map, transforming what had been a Democratic-leaning swing state into a Republican bastion. But those gains are now being severely tested. The president’s approval rating has fallen to 44% in one poll and 41% in another, with frustrations in the agriculture-dependent state mounting over high prices and tariffs.
It has made Iowa a crucial Senate battleground this fall. The race is for the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, and it is a seat Republicans can ill afford to lose as they try to hang on to their Senate majority.
The GOP has nominated Rep. Ashley Hinson, whose congressional district spans the northeast quadrant of the state, while Democrats have put up state Rep. Josh Turek, whose legislative district covers some heavily pro-Trump terrain in western Iowa.
Ashley Hinson and Joshua Turek. (Getty Images; Imagn via Reuters file)
When Iowa was a blue state
It may seem hard to believe now, but not that long ago it was Democrats who seemed to have a clear edge in Iowa...
