In today’s edition: The last US troops withdraw from Iraq, while the White House manages expectation͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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September 30, 2026
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Today in DC
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  1. Data center bill resistance
  2. Low-stakes AI accord
  3. Tempering Iran expectations
  4. Iraq withdrawal risks
  5. US gathers trade officials
  6. Dems’ Hispanic outreach
  7. SCOTUS pessimism

PDB: Ken Griffin’s big gift

Trump, Lutnick make announcement … Senate panel votes on Trump’s surgeon general pick … US publishes PCE inflation report

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Semafor Exclusive
1

Dems deny GOP wins ahead of midterms

Chuck Schumer
Evan Vucci/Reuters

Many Democrats supported the bipartisan bill overhauling college sports, but they don’t want to give Republicans any other wins before the midterms. That’s likely to become obvious today in two key votes. Senate Democrats increasingly oppose a data center-focused bill and are poised to block an insider trading bill from incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., with added voter ID requirements. They also voted down a cryptocurrency bill this month. Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, is spearheading the data center bill, which overwhelmingly passed the House. Senate Democrats argue the proposal does nothing for consumer utility costs and don’t want to create the perception that it does. “They’re cooked. I think Donald Trump is going to tweet five more times that he loves data centers. And that is the official position of their party,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told Semafor. “This is panic.”

— Burgess Everett

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2

Trump releases ‘Super Intelligence’ pact

Donald Trump and Mark Zuckerberg
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

President Donald Trump is hailing an “Accord on Super Intelligence” following his meeting with AI CEOs. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, xAI’s Elon Musk, OpenAI’s Greg Brockman, and Google’s Sundar Pichai signed on. The agreement is short on details, but outlines a voluntary pledge by these companies to implement internal controls for AI security and “alignment” — something they’re already doing — and to submit to independent auditing, an idea companies have floated in recent weeks. It’s not a regulatory framework or a bill, but it is a shift from just last year, when the Trump White House sought to ban all state AI laws. For now, the political winds remain in AI companies’ favor, to the CEOs’ relief, though the accord itself nodded to that changing someday: “Over time, it may make sense to codify these steps into laws or regulations.”

— Ashley Gold

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3

White House manages expectations on Iran

Donald Trump
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

As the US and Iran continue to speak via mediators in a bid to end the war, the White House is tempering any expectations that a breakthrough might be near. Speaking to reporters in front of the White House yesterday afternoon, Trump reiterated that he believes Iran is “doing very poorly,” though he said he wasn’t sure whether they’d “give up yet.” Some US officials have long conceded that there’s no clear — or clean — way out of the conflict, and that reality has emerged as a major issue for Republicans ahead of the midterms as voters focus on prices. “The bar is being raised very high,” said one person close to the White House regarding expectations of this week’s talks. “And by high, I mean we’re playing the limbo and just hoping we can walk under it without any major disasters.”

— Shelby Talcott

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4

Iraq withdrawal carries risks

A banner in Baghdad marking the withdrawal of US troops
Ahmed Saad/Reuters

The final American troops in Iraq are scheduled to depart today as the deadline for their withdrawal takes effect, ending nearly two decades of US military presence in the country. “This is the culmination of years of negotiations that round out decades-long support for Iraqi security forces, making sure that they have the capacity to take over responsibility for the security of Iraq,” said Jen Gavito, a former top career State Department official working on Middle East policy. But the transition carries risks — both for US counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State and the ongoing US conflict with Iran. “ISIS, while significantly diminished, is not entirely defeated,” Gavito said. The withdrawal also marks a “dramatic change” to the US-Iraq relationship and could benefit Iran, said Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

— Lauren Morganbesser

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Semafor Exclusive
5

Trade tensions hover over G20 meeting

Chart showing US tariffs on G20 countries

As the US doubles down on its overhaul of global trade, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is welcoming his G20 counterparts to Milwaukee for two jam-packed days of ministerial sessions and bilateral meetings. The gathering, which sets the stage for the G20 summit in Miami at the end of the year, follows similar engagements on finance and innovation last month. Tensions are highest this week: The US is still trying to force concessions from key trading partners, including through a ban on some Canadian imports that took effect earlier this week. “At some point, will there be a deal [with Canada]? I mean, presumably,” Greer told reporters last night. “But … it’s not urgent for us.” Attendees are slated to discuss steel overproduction and tour Rockwell Automation before huddling this afternoon and most of tomorrow. All events, except for Greer’s press conference tomorrow, will be closed to reporters.

— Eleanor Mueller

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Semafor Exclusive
6

Hispanic Dems tap creators to reach voters

Congressional Hispanic Caucus group
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is kicking off its voter outreach ahead of the midterms with a social media influencer-focused program, according to an announcement shared first with Semafor. The “Así se Dice” campaign, part of the group’s RUIDO initiative, includes 14 different Latino creators who will receive briefings from BOLD PAC on issues important to Latino voters with the option of rebroadcasting the messaging to their audiences. None of the creators are being paid for content (a controversial issue in campaigns this cycle). The RUIDO “Vota Tour” will involve events in competitive districts across Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Texas, and Arizona aimed at boosting voter turnout. Hispanic voters drifted rightward in 2024, but Democrats believe that improved outreach and inflation backlash will bring them back into the fold.

— Nicholas Wu

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7

Supreme Court faces sour American public

Chart showing trust in the judiciary

As the Supreme Court prepares to kick off its new term next week, the justices face an increasingly pessimistic American public. Thirty-four percent of US adults say they approve of the job the high court is doing, according to new Gallup polling, on par with the 33% who said so in July as the court ended its last term — a record low in the history of Gallup’s polling on this question, which dates back more than a half-century. Thirty-five percent, also a new low, say the court is “about right” ideologically, while 43% label it too conservative, as it deals out a mix of decisions on Trump’s policies. Forty-six percent of Americans also say they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the federal judicial branch, also a low, driven by declining trust among Democrats and independents.

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Views

Blindspot: NCAA and MAHA

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets.

What the Left isn’t reading: Conservative activist and former college swimmer Riley Gaines plans to appeal after a federal judge dismissed her lawsuit against the NCAA, Fox News reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is “making a play for MAHA supporters,” The Washington Post reported.

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Semafor Healthcare

Behind closed doors, a new era of healthcare policy is taking shape. From AI and access to care, to the race for new drugs and China’s growing role in global medicine, the forces remaking healthcare are accelerating, with implications for healthcare systems worldwide.

Introducing Semafor Healthcare, your weekly read on the politics, policy, and business driving healthcare. Brought to you weekly by David Lim, Semafor Healthcare will deliver the analysis and reporting leaders need to understand the forces reshaping healthcare, and what comes next. Subscribe for free.

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PDB

White House

Congress

  • Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., blocked a nonbinding resolution disapproving of the ads promoting President Trump that were paid for with taxpayer dollars.
  • All but one Senate Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, voted in favor of a (failed) measure that would have forced the Trump administration to examine Israel’s human rights record in the West Bank.

Outside the Beltway