Hi,

Today, Ofgem's Energy Price Cap rises by 3.6% - and sadly, that may be the least of our worries. The latest forecast predicts a further 21% rise from 1 Jan, the coldest time of the year. If that happens, it'd mean rates over 30% higher than the same period last year - though in practice, heavy gas users would see bigger rises, electricity-only users smaller.

So we wanted to give you the key facts and what you can do about it...

• You DON'T need to let the hikes happen. Many on standard tariffs can avoid this by switching to the cheapest fixes (see details below), where you lock in the rate for a year or two, so it won't rise. Don't just stick with your existing firm though, it may not be the cheapest.
• Electricity VAT is being scrapped for six months from today too. This applies to the elec unit rates and Standing Charges (not gas). For those like you on a Price-Capped tariff (if that's not right, let us know), the 3.6% Price Cap rise includes the VAT cut - without it, the average rise would've been 6.2%. For those already on fixes or other non-Price Cap tariffs, they should see their electricity bills cut by 4.8%.
• On monthly Direct Debit? It's Meter Reading Week. If you've NOT got working smart meters, submit an up-to-date reading over the next few days to reduce the risk your provider estimates you've used more than you actually have at the new rate. See firm-by-firm when & how to do a reading.
• The big rise on this Cap is for gas users. The new 1 Oct Price Cap Direct Debit average UK rates, including VAT when it's charged, are as follows (though these can materially vary by region, our comparison will show yours):
  
  

  	Unit Rate	Standing Charge
  Electricity	26.32p/kWh (was 26.11p) UP 0.8%	54.83p/day (was 57.19p) DOWN 4.1%
  Gas	7.97p/kWh (was 7.33p) UP 8.7%	29.68p/day (was 29.04p) UP 2.2%



• The January Cap is predicted to rise by a massive 21%. The latest predictions are a tad lower than they were, but still are for a further 21% rise on 1 Jan, and not predicted to drop much in April. The main reason for these big changes is the wholesale rates energy firms pay... and they've been sky-high recently. We're six weeks through the 13-week assessment period, so those highs are now baked in. So while exact predictions change weekly, it's now sadly almost unthinkable it won't rise, and improbable it won't rise substantially. Expect a ballpark of 12% to 30%, depending on world events (barring Govt intervention).
• Check your Direct Debit (DD). Use our 'Is your Direct Debit right?' calc to see roughly what it should be. If too high, see how to challenge unfair DDs. Plus, if you're more than two months in credit right now, consider asking to get excess credit back.
• What does the Government say about this? A fortnight ago, Martin asked the new Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh. Watch the full interview in his Energy Bills ITVX special, but key clips include Why are bills UP £300 when they were meant to be DOWN £300? and Will you ditch energy Standing Charges?

The Price Cap's a Pants Cap - get off it if possible

The Price Cap was designed as a back-stop for those who can't switch, yet far too many are on it - even Ofgem is urging you to ditch it. It's virtually impossible if you're on prepay, but for those who pay other ways, it's worth urgently investigating.

• If you FIX NOW you can avoid the hikes... A fix simply means the unit rates and Standing Charges are locked in, so they CAN'T RISE for the year or two length of the fix (though use more you pay more). Your exact saving and winner depends on location & usage though. Because of that, and as deals change all the time, the links take you through our Cheap Fix Comparison. Unsure? You can get help with our Pick Me A Tariff tool. Yet to give you an indication of prices, roughly...
  
  - Today's cheapest fixes are around 5% LESS than the new Price Cap rate.
  - They are 21% LESS than the current prediction for the January Price Cap.

Cheapest FIXED tariffs  All allow new & existing customers All links via our comparison as deals change & you need a bespoke result (your region's Standing Charges & Unit Rates are there)
Cheapest ONE-YEAR fix
E.on Next Fixed 12m Exclusive v9 12mth fix Dual fuel and elec-only | Monthly Direct Debit only | No Smart Meter needed | Exclusive deal This is the only 1yr fix cheaper than Oct Cap.	Avg Cost: 3.8% LESS than the Price Cap when £20 MSE dual-fuel cashback is included Early Exit Fees: £50/fuel. So £100 to leave gas & elec before fix ends
Cheapest LONGER fixes
These give price certainty for longer, but today's fixed rates are relatively high and mightn't look competitive in a year if the Mid East conflict de-escalates. So if you go long, focus on lower early-exit fees, as a get-out-of-jail-cheap card, in case you need to ditch it later.
Fuse Energy Sept 26 Fixed (24m) v18 24mth fix Dual fuel and single fuel | Monthly variable Direct Debit only | No Smart Meter needed | Exclusive (though available direct without the cashback)	Avg Cost: 4.8% LESS than the Price Cap when £20 MSE dual-fuel cashback is included Early Exit Fees: £50/fuel. So £100 to leave gas & elec before fix ends
British Gas Fixed Exclusive Oct28 v2 24mth fix Dual fuel and single fuel | Monthly Direct Debit or cash or cheque | No Smart Meter needed	Avg Cost: 3.6% LESS than the Price Cap when £20 MSE dual-fuel cashback is included Early Exit Fees: £125/fuel. So £250 to leave gas & elec before fix ends
E.on Next 24m Exclusive v20 24mth fix Dual fuel and elec-only | Monthly Direct Debit only | No Smart Meter needed | Exclusive deal	Avg Cost: 3.5% LESS than the Price Cap when £20 MSE dual-fuel cashback is included Early Exit Fees: £100/fuel. So £200 to leave gas & elec before fix ends
What is 'MSE cashback'? Some providers pay energy comparison sites to facilitate the switch (you still get the same price as going direct). Unlike other sites, we don't default to hiding tariffs that don't pay. Instead, we show them all, but when we get paid to switch you, we give you a chunk of this as cashback. That means tariffs where we're paid are relatively cheaper for you, so it's likely more people switch to them. Win-win.

Is it a good time to fix? If it'll save you now, yes - but...

If you've been on your firm's Price-Capped standard tariff for ages, then you get off it now and switch to one of the cheapest fixes, you should start saving straight away. After that, it's currently predicted the Jan Cap will rise over 20% on top, so you're very likely to make material savings over the high-use winter period.

However, had you fixed three months ago, you would've locked in about 13% cheaper than now, and it was 20% cheaper before the Middle East conflict started. That's because, unlike the Price Cap, which works on a time lag, the rate you can get a new fix at depends pretty much on current wholesale rates - and they are still very high, largely due to the ongoing Middle East conflict (this minute-by-minute graph site of wholesale gas prices, which also feed into electricity, will give you the idea).

There's a chance that if the Middle East situation de-escalates, you'll be able to fix more cheaply, but equally, things may get even worse. Yet every week waited is a week you pay more. So again, if you've long sat on the Price Cap, the easy thing is just to get off it. But if you're a regular fixer who monitors the market, it's your call if you think you'll save waiting as no one knows.

• Fixes aren't the only choice... Fixes are the simple and easy choice for most, but there are some options that may beat them for some, including Price Cap trackers, cheaper variables and rapid-change time-of-use tariffs - see the full alternatives to fixing options. Or if you've got an EV or solar panels, see our EV tariffs, solar panels and solar export tariff guides.

Thanks,
The Cheap Energy Club team

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