Three weeks into the NFL season, and some teams are already playing like their season is on the line.
Today’s free play is below, and we’re going bigger than usual: 1.5 units on a desperate home favorite nobody wants to touch.
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The breakdown: This has to be a bigger play for us with the spot Houston is in and how well this defense matches up. Nobody wants to bet an 0-3 Texans team right now, especially after Dallas just went toe-to-toe with Baltimore and had a chance to win it late before missing the game-winning FG.
Now Dallas has to go on the road and face one of the league’s best defenses, with Houston in complete desperation mode trying to avoid an 0-4 start that would put a massive dent in their playoff hopes. We also have a system that fits this spot perfectly: winless teams favored over a team with a better record are 10-0 SU since 2011 when priced below -175.
The potential return of Nico Collins is also huge. He returned to practice, and getting him back would give this offense a much-needed weapon in a game where we don’t think Houston will need to score a ton.
We have multiple systems lining up on Houston this week, and between the desperation spot, defensive matchup and potential Collins return, we’re comfortable making this a 1.5u play.
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SHARP MONEY REPORT
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October 4 at 8:33am ET
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| Side |
Tix |
Money |
Move |
Opp |
| 10/4 IND SP |
41% |
59% |
+6 |
@WSH |
| 10/4 JAX ML |
34% |
49% |
– |
@CIN |
| 10/4 U38.5 |
38% |
56% |
+5 |
@MIN |
| 10/4 U38.5 |
30% |
46% |
+9 |
@TB |
| 10/5 ATL SP |
54% |
69% |
+1 |
@NO |
| 10/11 PHI SP |
14% |
48% |
-3.5 |
@JAX |
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Underdogs Off a Blowout Loss
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Early in the season, we’ve seen a strong bounce-back trend from moderate underdogs coming off an ugly loss. This system backs teams that are:
• Underdogs between +3.5 and +7
• Coming off a loss by 20+ points
• Playing in Week 2, 3 or 4
The idea behind this system is pretty straightforward: buy low on teams coming off a blowout loss early in the season. The market can react heavily to one ugly performance, while teams have historically responded well ATS in this specific spot.
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| System Spots |
Play |
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Patriots vs. Bills
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Patriots +7
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Systems are information to help you make your own bets, not official plays.
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NOTES FROM THE LAB
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Three trends worth knowing for today’s slate, straight from the NFL Trend Zone Discord channel.
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Herbert keeps it close as a big road dog. Since 2020, Justin Herbert is 3-0 ATS (100%) on the road as a 7+ point underdog, covering by 1.3 PPG. He’s 0-3 straight up in those games, losing by 6.3 PPG.
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Burrow as a short Week 4 favorite. Since 2020, Joe Burrow is 3-1 ATS (75%) as a -6.5 to -1 favorite in Week 4, losing ATS by 1.8 PPG, and 3-1 straight up (75%), winning by 1.5 PPG.
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Macdonald hasn’t bounced back at home. Since 2024, Mike Macdonald is 0-4 ATS (0%) at home off a straight-up loss, losing ATS by 7.1 PPG, and 0-4 straight up, losing by 7.5 PPG.
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That's just a taste. The Trend Zone surfaces insights like these every week of the season, and members get the full list in the Discord.
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