Good morning. Prediction markets are raising novel ethical concerns and insider-trading risks on everything from corporate auditing to U.S. military operations. Those headaches are now at the courthouse door, presenting particularly unusual challenges for the justice system.

The most direct and obvious concern is the potential for jurors to bet on their own deliberations, creating financial incentives to reach particular outcomes, no matter the facts of the case. Some court staffers are also potentially in positions to have inside knowledge of how deliberations are proceeding.

• Place your bets: During the summer murder trial of Lindsay Clancy, bettors wagered more than $100,000 on the verdict. Since a deadlocked jury forced a mistrial in early September, more than $500,000 in additional bets have been placed on whether the Massachusetts woman accused of killing her children will eventually be convicted. the bets were available on an offshore platform run by Polymarket. The site also has hosted bets on the federal prosecution of Sean “Diddy” Combs and the government’s current case against ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

• Peer pressure: The accessibility and pervasiveness of betting platforms makes the possibility of corrupting jurors a real risk, said University of Chicago law professor M. Todd Henderson. But there is also a broader concern, he said, that prediction markets with heavy betting could influence how jurors think about a case. If millions are wagered on the belief that a defendant will be acquitted, could that make a jury more reluctant to convict?

• New policies: Many courts haven’t spent much time thinking about prediction markets yet, court staff say, but at least a handful are beginning to address the issue. The U.S. District Court in Chicago, for example, is updating its insider-trading policies to prohibit employees from using on-the-job information to make prediction wagers.

In case you missed it: In Friday’s Risk Journal podcast, we discuss how Tehran’s sanctions-busting oil trade entrusted billions of dollars to middlemen—not all of it has come back. Plus, the push for digital sovereignty is causing big headaches for multinational companies. Listen to new episodes every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon.

U.S. sanctions and threatens to dismantle International Criminal Court.

The Trump administration announced sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court on Friday, threatening to dismantle the institution after it issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The sanctions could deal a potentially crippling blow to the ICC by cutting it off from the U.S. financial system and prohibiting it from conducting transactions in dollars. Western banks often refuse to deal at all with sanctioned entities, because of the difficulty of separating their dollar trades from transactions in other major currencies.

CFTC proposes to expand definition of swaps to include prediction markets trading.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is proposing to provide what it describes as additional clarity on the term “swap” that would include event contracts used in prediction market trading.

The expanded term would encompass event contracts on sporting, political, cultural and weather-related events, the CFTC said Friday.

• The head of the Justice Department’s new fraud division said his unit will seek out tax evasion charges in all cases it brings, Risk Journal reports (free link).

• U.S. authorities have seized or detained 90 shipments of biodiesel worth more than $2.8 million bound for a sanctioned Cuban state firm.

• The Justice Department is investigating whether major TV networks violated federal antitrust laws when they briefly suspended a rotation of broadcast journalists covering the White House last month following CNN’s removal from a planned assignment.

The value of wine stolen—using a company’s own forklifts—from a vineyard in Tuscany in one of the largest, most audacious wine heists in recent history.

Trump pushes Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire as export deal draws criticism.

President Trump pushed Russia and Ukraine to agree to halt strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, as the White House continued to face bipartisan criticism over moves in recent days to ease U.S. pressure on Moscow and shift blame for the continued fighting to Kyiv.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday, despite Moscow’s rejection of such a deal so far and no sign that there was an agreement in place.

The latest Trump statement came as he encountered widespread pushback on Capitol Hill to his decision to allow Russia to export oil to the U.S. and world markets and his harsh remarks toward Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. On Sunday, a group of Democratic and Republican senators issued a joint statement calling Trump’s export plan illegal and contrary to a 2022 law that banned Russian energy imports.

• Russia Pounds Ukrainian Energy Despite Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement

AI has a God problem.

Already a polarizing political issue this fall, the AI industry’s latest challenge is emerging from the pulpit, Tim Higgins writes in a column. Unlike recent generations of technology, the Christian community appears poised to put its stamp on AI early in an attempt to ensure it benefits all of humanity rather than a few tech billionaires.

The risk for the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic is getting further sideways with a large swath of the American populace, some of whom are already unhappy with AI data centers and Flock cameras in their communities.

• China’s campaign to expand its reach in the Pacific has a new target: a chain of tiny Philippine islands that would be critical to any U.S. defense of Taiwan.

• Rogue AI models have hacked companies and tried to break into government websites. Now one has submitted a fake tip for an unsolved crime.

• A missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s international airport killed at least 12 people and injured hundreds more on Saturday. Commercial air travel has been dragged into the front lines of escalating conflicts across the globe, with airports, planes and airspace becoming the deliberate target of missile and drone attacks on a scale not seen before.

• The escalating conflict with Iran-backed Houthi militants threatens Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans to transform the economy.

• The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi locked down India’s capital with thousands of security forces in a bid to thwart a mass protest over an effort to clean up voter lists that critics say is stripping milli