CFA Society New York SmartBrief
Banks face earnings test amid market volatility
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January 13, 2025
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Top Story
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon remains cautiously pessimistic about the future of the economy despite positive indicators such as low unemployment and a strong stock market. Dimon thinks there are "a lot of legitimate concerns that Americans have. For example, ineffective government, they're angry about it. They're angry about immigration. There are people with legitimate issues," he said.
Full Story: CBS News (1/12) 
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Industry Update
The upcoming earnings season is being viewed as crucial for reviving the stock market rally that has lost momentum since the presidential election. With the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut interest rates soon, corporate earnings growth becomes a key focus for investors. Analysts expect a 12% profit increase for S&P 500 companies, marking the largest year-over-year gain since late 2021.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (1/13),  CNBC (1/11),  Bloomberg (1/11) 
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Banks are preparing to release earnings amid a challenging backdrop, including a strong jobs report that has raised inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Despite the uncertainty, analysts remain optimistic about a revival in dealmaking, which could boost results in 2025. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo will begin 2025's first earnings season on Wednesday.
Full Story: Bloomberg (1/12) 
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Trump economic advisor Stephen Miran has advocated for higher tariffs and a weaker dollar to address what he sees as structural imbalances in the global trading system. He supports the idea of the "optimal tariff," which suggests that under certain conditions, a country can benefit from imposing tariffs if it has significant market power as a buyer or seller.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (1/12) 
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Outgoing Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has advised the next administration to maintain investor protections, warning that broadening the definition of accredited investors or reducing disclosure requirements could harm retail traders. "Investors get to decide what risks to take as long as the issuers have been putting out full and fair, truthful disclosures," Gensler said.
Full Story: Bloomberg (1/11) 
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New York Focus
New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit to recover more than $2 million in cryptocurrency stolen by scammers who targeted people seeking remote work. The scammers used unsolicited text messages to lure victims into opening cryptocurrency accounts under the guise of reviewing products, then transferred the funds to their own wallets. The suit, which cites seven victims from New York, Virginia and Florida, aims to return the stolen funds.
Full Story: The Associated Press (1/10) 
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In October 2024, New York City officials announced the completion of the first phase of the East Side Coastal Resiliency project, the largest urban resilience project currently underway in the United States. With a $1.45 billion budget, the project will reshape 2.4 miles of Manhattan's shoreline by 2026, changing the way New York City responds to extreme storms and rising sea levels.
Full Story: The Stormwater Report (Water Environment Federation) (1/8) 
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Career Development
When giving a presentation, be flexible when faced with time constraints rather than sticking to your script and forcing meetings to run long, writes author Mike Schiller. "As frustrating (and unfair) as it is for the presenter, it's part of life in the business world, where meetings run late and plans change," Schiller writes.
Full Story: ThoughtLeaders (1/6) 
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People & Personalities
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles says the central bank's independence will not be threatened under President-elect Donald Trump. "There's a fair bit of misunderstanding about what Fed independence is. Fed independence doesn't mean that the president can't express a view on Fed policy," Quarles said.
Full Story: Bloomberg (1/13) 
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On The Economy
American consumers expect inflation to rise significantly over the next year and beyond, with the University of Michigan's survey showing one-year i