Prognosis
Thanks to Trump's tariffs.
View in browser
Bloomberg

Prognosis is exclusively for Bloomberg.com subscribers. As a loyal reader, you’re receiving a complimentary trial. If you’d like to continue receiving Prognosis, and gain unlimited digital access to all of Bloomberg.com, we invite you to subscribe now at the special rate of $129 for your first year (usually $299).

Hi! It’s Madison in New York. I’ve got one thing on my mind today: tariffs. But before we get to that …

Today’s must-reads

  • US drug and tobacco regulators have been cut as HHS head Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seeks to reshape the agency.
  • Telehealth company Hims & Hers will begin selling Lilly’s weight-loss drug Zepbound. 
  • The US will seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangione in the shooting death of a UnitedHealth executive.

Stuck

Later today, President Donald Trump is expected to announce sweeping tariffs on “all countries” intended to rebalance global trade and boost US manufacturing. Industries are bracing for impact — and so are wrinkle-haters.

Tariffs are uncharted territory for drug companies. For years, the pharmaceutical sector has been protected from tariffs by a World Trade Organization agreement designed to improve access to life-saving drugs. Now, pharma is high on Trump’s list of targets. 

Drug manufacturers are already racing to figure out if their supply chains will remain viable.

Even though sector-specific levies on pharmaceuticals aren’t expected today, potential reciprocal tariffs on countries like Ireland and Switzerland will be bad news for the drug industry. Those countries are home to manufacturing plants for major drugmakers. 

Ireland is a particularly fraught target — and one that Trump has previously singled out. Levies on the country would be a problem for most of the world’s top drugmakers, but particularly so for AbbVie, which makes its anti-wrinkle injection, Botox, there. 

Botox is made from one of the most toxic substances on Earth, botulinum toxin, and its purified medical recipe is a closely guarded secret. AbbVie’s Allergan unit makes Botox on the west coast of Ireland, in a town called Westport. Moving production to the US — like Trump wants companies to do — would likely be a major headache for AbbVie. (Not to mention, a potential national security issue.)

The more likely scenario is that AbbVie will have to raise prices for its wildly popular drug, or eat the costs. For a drug like Botox, any increase in prices will hit patients because it’s largely used as an aesthetic treatment that isn’t covered by insurance. Here in New York City, Botox for forehead lines can cost from $200 to $600

How much are you willing to pay to be wrinkle-free? — Madison Muller

What we’re reading

What the Health and Human Services reorganization means, according to the publisher of KFF Health News. 

Divide your average daily heart rate by your daily average number of steps to improve your heart health, the New York Times reports

Vitamin D does more than keep bones and teeth strong, the Washington Post reports

Contact Prognosis

Health questions? Have a tip that we should investigate? Contact us at AskPrognosis@bloomberg.net.

Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? There's more where that came from. Browse all our weekly and daily emails to get even more insights from your Bloomberg.com subscription.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Prognosis newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices